984
FXUS61 KOKX 142324
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
624 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY BUILDING IN BRIEFLY, BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS EARLY
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER INTO SATURDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR
NEXT SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY POINTS:
* AREAS OF BLACK ICE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS ANY
MOISTURE OR SLUSH ON UNTREATED SURFACES WILL QUICKLY REFREEZE.
* WINDY WITH NW WINDS GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO
CITY/COAST AND AS LOW AS -8 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
* GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH MAY BRING DOWN ADDITIONAL SNOW
LADEN TREE BRANCHES, WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES, INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG ISLAND.
STRONG POLAR SHORTWAVE (-2 TO -3 STD 500MB HEIGHTS) PIVOTS THROUGH
AND THE AREA TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS LI/CT, AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON (850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -18 C).
USHERED IN TONIGHT INTO MON AM ON BRISK NW WINDS OF
15-25G30-40MPH, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS INTERIOR
AND MID TEENS COAST (UPPER TEENS NYC/NJ METRO). WINDCHILLS
AROUND 0 F FOR COAST, AND 0 TO -8 F FOR INTERIOR.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT
POLAR TROUGH EXITS EAST MONDAY MORNING, WITH MEAN UPPER TROUGHING
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK BACKSIDE SHORTWAVES
APPROACH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSS MON EVE INTO TUE MORNING.
ASSOCIATED WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES, BUT WAA AHEAD OF IT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
MONDAY AFT/NIGHT. NO ACCUM EXPECTED.
LIMITED MIXING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH A MODERATING POLAR
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 20S INTERIOR TO UPPER 20S
COAST (ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE). WINDCHILLS IN THE TEENS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS INTERIOR, AND LOWER 20S COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY POINTS
* ARCTIC AIRMASS STARTS TO WEAKEN WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
MODERATE ON TUESDAY.
* AIRMASS FURTHER MODERATES WITH MILDER HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
(MOSTLY LOWER 40S) AND THURSDAY (MOSTLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S).
* STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS EARLY
FRIDAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND VERY GUSTY WINDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY POST COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
* PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND. LOW CHANCES OF
RAIN AND SNOW.
ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING NEAR OR WITHIN
THE NORTHEAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE
STEERING FLOW FOR A MORE RAPID PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH QUICK
PASSAGE OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREAS. ALOFT, THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EASTWARD
WITHIN SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR MIDWEEK WILL BRING AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS MAIN FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS EARLY
FRIDAY. A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH THE RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF NYC BEFORE ALL PRECIPITATION
CONCLUDES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW. POPS ARE STILL LOW AND UNDER 30
PERCENT SO LOOKS LIKE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND OUTSIDE
OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PULLS AWAY TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 3Z BUT NO IMPACT EXPECTED.
NNW/NW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT TONIGHT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH BACK TO
15G20-25KT LATE TONIGHT AND BACK SLIGHTLY MORE W OF 310
MAGNETIC. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE GUSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT GUSTS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LEFT GUSTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THIS
POSSIBLE LULL. GUSTS SHUT OFF MID-LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A LULL IN GUSTS MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE MONDAY MORNING PUSH.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS BACKING SW AND DIMINISHING.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR. S WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT: RAIN WITH IFR COND, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. S
WINDS 10-15G20-25KT IN THE EVENING, INCREASING TO 15-20G25-35KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLWS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN AND EITHER MVFR/IFR COND IN THE MORNING, THEN
VFR. SW WINDS 15-20G25-35KT IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING W IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS EARLY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AM.
OTHERWISE SCA CONDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
MARGINAL GUSTS ON NEARSHORE WATERS, FALLING BELOW SCA TUESDAY AM.
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE, SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA GUSTS FORECAST ACROSS MOST WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
FOR OCEAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA GUSTS FORECAST AGAIN ON OCEAN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SCA GUSTS AT MINIMUM FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV
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