115
FXUS61 KOKX 151435
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
935 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF
ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY POINT(S):
* UNSEASONABLY COLD TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.
A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
IN PLACE TO START THINGS OFF. AFTER A BITTERLY COLD MORNING, IT
REMAINS BRISK AND UNSEASONABLY COLD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE WINDS NOT BEING AS GUSTY AND AS STRONG. THE
WINDS COME MORE AROUND TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUN TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER A LITTLE AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO GET
TO FREEZING AS MOST LOCATIONS WON'T GET OUT OF THE UPPER 20S. WIND
CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY DON'T BUDGE THE UPPER TEENS.
FOR TONIGHT THE WINDS DIMINISH WITH A LIGHTER W FLOW REGIME. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE NON-URBAN AREAS TO DECOUPLE AT LEAST
SOME. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE AND A POCKET OF HIGHER
RH IN RELATION TO A SHORTWAVE. THERE IS A WEDGE OF DRY AIR CLOSER TO
THE SFC AND BELOW 7-8 KFT. THEREFORE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW FLAKES WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. HAVE KEPT POPS MINIMAL
AS HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON PROSPECT OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. BUT THERE SHOULD
STILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THUS A GOOD DEGREE OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE PREVENTED, OTHERWISE WITH A SNOWPACK
IN PLACE TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY PLUMMET. THEREFORE NOT EXPECTED
SINGLE DIGITS, AND MORE LIKE TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR NIGHT TIME
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINT(S):
* THE COLD EASES AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE GETTING EAST EARLY TUESDAY THERE WILL BE WEAK NVA
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT OVERALL LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOOK FOR A GOOD DEGREE OF
SUNSHINE AS THE AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT PLACES ALONG THE COAST SHOULD REACH OR JUST
GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST SPOTS REACH THE LOWER
30S, WITH A FEW MIDDLE 30S FURTHER EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS SO
NOT FEELING NEARLY AS COLD.
TOWARDS THE EARLY EVENING THE REGION BEGINS TO GET INTO A RETURN
FLOW REGIME. THUS TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THE WINDS END
UP LIGHTER THAN THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THEN MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING
COULD GET THE NON-URBAN AREAS A LOT COLDER THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE. LOWS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S, WITH SOME UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS
INTERIOR OUTLYING LOCATIONS. IF LESS CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE AND WINDS
ARE LIGHTER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLDER.
ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER AS TEMPERATURES
GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ON A SW FLOW
REGIME WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH. THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH FRONTOLYSIS AND WILL HAVE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, THUS THE
FRONT WILL NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP WITH IT. THE WINDS GO MORE WEST AND
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SEASONABLE NIGHT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* A WARM UP AS IT TURNS MUCH MILDER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
* ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS PAST COLD SHOTS.
A QUASI ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 TAKES SHAPE DURING THE PERIOD
AS THE POLAR VORTEX EXPANDS AS IT STAYS UP IN NORTHERN CANADA. THERE
REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE DEGREE
OF AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION TOWARDS THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
AMPLIFICATION TO ALLOW WARMER AIR TO PUSH IN ON A MUCH MILDER SW
FLOW BEHIND A WARM FRONT AND HEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE A GOOD DEGREE OF
BAROCLINICITY WITH IT WITH RAIN SHOWERS PRECEDING AND ALONG THE
FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR
ARRIVES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT DRIES OUT QUICKLY AND TURNS WINDY.
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BUT
THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS PRIOR COLD AIR MASSES. THE
WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND CALM TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING SUNDAY, BUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MILDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CLIMBING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.
VFR. NW/WNW WINDS GUSTING AT AROUND 25KT. GUSTS SUBSIDE AT APPROX 21-
22Z WITH WINDS BACKING MORE WSW. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM APPROX 01-04Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
DIRECTION LIKELY FAVORS NORTH/RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH APPROX
15-17Z, THEN SOUTH/LEFT OF IT THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF LLWS ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY: VFR. S WINDS G15-20KT LATE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: RAIN WITH IFR COND, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. S
WINDS G20-25KT IN THE EVENING, INCREASING TO 25-35KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LLWS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN AND EITHER MVFR/IFR COND IN THE MORNING, THEN
VFR. SW WINDS G25-35KT IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING W IN THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASING TO 30-40KT. LLWS EARLY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
PRIMARILY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS LIKELY FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA BEFORE DAYS END, OTHERWISE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON MUCH OF THE OCEAN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL THEN RAMP UP ON THE OCEAN
WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING WSW FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS RETURN BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ON THE OCEAN.
HOWEVER, THE WINDS AND SEAS RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING AS GALE CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
SETTLE DOWN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
THERE REMAIN NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ332-
350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JC/JT
MARINE...JE
HYDROLOGY...JE
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