216
FXUS61 KOKX 160529
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1229 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLOWLY WORK OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS
ON THURSDAY BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY POINT(S):
* UNSEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. NBM TEMPS WERE USED (CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS).
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND STILL
A BIT OF A WEST WIND. IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD GET LOWER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. RIGHT NOW, EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS, EXCEPT
LOWER 20S IN THE NYC METRO. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINT(S):
* TUESDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY A MIDWEEK WARMUP.
* DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND PAC SYSTEMS QUICKLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY WORKS OFFSHORE, WHILE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE LAST DAY OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON
MONDAY, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH WINDS TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY, LOWS WILL NOT BE NEAR
AS COLD. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP INTO THE 20S
IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF, THEN GRADUALLY RISING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 40S, WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL (SHADE BELOW). GUSTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL TOP OFF AROUND 20 MPH. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW IT BECOMING INVERTED, LIMITING THE GUST
POTENTIAL. COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* MILD INTO FRIDAY.
* WET ON FRIDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
* COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEP TEMPS MILD THU. AN UPPER TROF THEN BRINGS
SWLY FLOW ALOFT THU NGT INTO FRI WITH DEVELOPING RAIN. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COMES THRU LATE FRI, WITH
COLDER AIR FOR FRI NGT AND SAT. COULD BE SOME ICY SPOTS FRI NGT
AND SAT MRNG WITH REFREEZING MOISTURE. POSITION OF THE POLAR
FRONT SUN AND MON CLOSE TO THE AREA, BUT THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC
AIR MAY REMAIN N OF THE CWA. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE
CONFIDENCE, BUT GENERAL PATTERN IS ZONAL WHICH WOULD TEND
TOWARDS GLANCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND PUSHES
OFFSHORE LATER TUESDAY.
VFR.
A W TO WSW FLOW OF AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL
DIMINISH. AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
WINDS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE SW OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK TO THE W TO WNW AFTER ITS PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
THEN SHIFT TO THE SW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE.
LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT 2 KFT SW AT 40 TO 45 KT AT KSWF STARTING
JUST PRIOR TO 06Z WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT WEDNESDAY AND CHANCE OF LLWS.
THURSDAY: VFR. S WINDS G15-20KT LATE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: RAIN WITH IFR COND, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. S
WINDS G20-25KT IN THE EVENING, INCREASING TO 25-35KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LLWS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN AND EITHER MVFR/IFR COND IN THE MORNING, THEN
VFR. SW WINDS G25-35KT IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING W IN THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASING TO 30-40KT. LLWS EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SCA
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WATERS POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY WITH SUB- SCA CONDITIONS.
S WINDS INCREASE LATE THU INTO FRI AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYS.
GALES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI, WITH GALES AGAIN POSSIBLE. RESIDUAL SCA
SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SAT.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
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