459
FXUS61 KOKX 160817
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
317 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER INTO SATURDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR
NEXT SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY POINTS
* DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY GET MORE INTO THE 30S.
* A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE WILL STILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FEEL
SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE ON AVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL AND MID LEVEL FLOW QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL JET SITUATED MORE NORTH OF THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SYNOPTIC
SW FLOW AND THEREBY ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO
MODERATE. THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER FOR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND FOR TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
TOOK A BLEND OF THE NBM AND MOS CONSENSUS FOR FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN THE NBM REGARDING
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
WITH THE TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, SOME SNOW
MELT WILL OCCUR. WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GOING WELL BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THERE WILL POTENTIALLY BE SOME
PATCHY ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES
* FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH, POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 50 MPH GUSTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. THE TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WOULD BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
* OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND TRENDING COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL AND MID LEVEL FLOW QUASI-ZONAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED LATE THURSDAY
WITH LARGE LONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC. MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE DEEPER. FOR WEDNESDAY, MAX TEMPERATURES
FORECAST ARE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED PARENT LOW IS WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH MAIN FORCING, ALLOWING FOR THIS TO BE
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THEREAFTER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW, PROVIDING MORE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE RATHER COLD DUE TO
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. BUT EVEN TAKING THAT INTO
ACCOUNT, THE LOWS ARE RELATIVELY WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT.
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY.
THE PARENT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING BY DECREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THUS EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND. FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN, POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH THE RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION CONCLUDES.
ALSO, WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INITIALLY LIMITED TO
INVERSIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT COULD MIX DOWN MORE WITH DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH HEAVIER RAIN. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SHOW
850MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 70-80 KT, A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET.
RELATIVELY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AND THEREBY INCREASING
VERTICAL MIXING LEVELS. GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LOOKING
MORE PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS
APPEAR TO BE JUST AHEAD, ALONG AND BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS GRADUALLY LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS FORECAST
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* MOSTLY DRY, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED LATE
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST, AND A BUILDING RIDING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOWS PASSING TO THE NORTH.
ARCTIC AIR LIKELY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS SATURDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
WELL TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
VFR.
A LIGHT W TO WSW FLOW REMAINS. AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH AND WINDS MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE SW BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK TO THE W TO WNW AFTER ITS PASSAGE THIS MORNING. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE.
LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT 2 KFT SW AT 40 TO 45 KT AT KSWF STARTING JUST
PRIOR TO 06Z WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT WEDNESDAY AND CHANCE OF LLWS.
THURSDAY: VFR. S WINDS G15-20KT LATE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: RAIN WITH IFR COND, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. S
WINDS G20-25KT IN THE EVENING, INCREASING TO 25-35KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LLWS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN AND EITHER MVFR/IFR COND IN THE MORNING, THEN
VFR. SW WINDS G25-35KT IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING W IN THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASING TO 30-40KT. LLWS EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL FORECAST WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN, LATE TONIGHT ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TO GIVE HIGHER SW WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS. THIS WILL BUILD OCEAN SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY, ALL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED SCA THRESHOLDS WITH STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THESE SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OCEAN
SEAS LIKELY REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
OCEAN WHERE SCA GUSTS COULD VERY WELL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY RAMP UP TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND GALES
FOR ALL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STORM FORCE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL IS NOT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR PARTS OF THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH OTHERWISE GALES
CONTINUING. GALES COULD VERY WELL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DECREASING TO MORE SCA LEVELS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING DURING
SATURDAY, REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS, BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE,
AND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM, THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
AT THIS TIME, NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM
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