937
FXUS61 KOKX 171133
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
633 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
EARLY TONIGHT. A BRIEF BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY POINTS
* DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* AIRMASS FURTHER MODERATES TODAY. EXPECT MORE SUBSTANTIAL MELTING
OF THE CURRENT SNOW COVER TODAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE 40S.
UPPER LEVEL AND MID LEVEL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK
STEERING FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT, ALONG WITH ITS
MAIN AREA OF VERTICAL FORCING, ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE DEEPER. FOR TODAY, MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST ARE WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS, OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE SETTING UP. USED MAV/MET BLEND TO
CONVEY A MORE VAST RANGE OF LOW TEMPERATURES, ILLUSTRATING THE
VARIANCE OF RADIATIVE COOLING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN
URBAN HEAT ISLAND AND RURAL OUTLYING LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY.
* RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
* STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. GUSTS COULD REACH NEAR 45 TO
50 MPH, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 55 MPH IN SOME SPOTS.
* A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO PROBABLE WITH POTENTIAL
SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM.
* STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS PICKING
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EARLY
FRIDAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWING BY DECREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THUS EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND.
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN,
POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION, SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR BEFORE ALL PRECIPITATION CONCLUDES.
WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT, A VERY STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS
UP BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INITIALLY
LIMITED DUE TO INVERSIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT COULD MIX DOWN
MORE WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH HEAVIER RAIN.
RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
LOOKING MORE PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 55 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS
APPEAR TO BE JUST AHEAD, ALONG AND BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. LREF 00Z INITIALIZATION SHOWS
MEAN WIND GUST OF 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG
ISLAND AND TAKING THE 75TH PERCENTILE THE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
THE 45 TO 50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION FOR THE
FORECAST TIME OF 7AM EST OR 12 UTC FRIDAY.
FOR THE WIND GUST FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AN EVEN BLEND
OF NBM AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE WAS USED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT FOR
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY A GREATER WEIGHT OF THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE
WAS USED (SPECIFICALLY 2/3 NBM90TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO 1/3
NBM).
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FOR EARLY
FRIDAY SO THERE COULD BE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. COVERAGE FOR THIS
IS LOW SO JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE POSSIBILITY.
MODELS INDICATE NEAR ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES EARLY FRIDAY WITH MEAN
MUCAPE IN THE LREF SHOWN TO INCREASE TO NEAR 70 J/KG EARLY FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN GRADUALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. LOWS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. HIGHS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
ANY LEFTOVER SNOWMELT FRIDAY AND MOISTURE LADEN GROUNDS MAY HAVE
SOME PATCHES THAT BECOME FROZEN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING. A MITIGATING FACTOR TO THIS WOULD BE IF
THE WINDS KEEP STAYING UP TO DRY OUT THE SURFACES BEFORE THEY
FREEZE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY POINT:
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LITTLE WARMER ON SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYS, THEN COLDER ON
MON WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 30S BEHIND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DRY FROPA IS MODELED ATTM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL AGAIN ON TUE WITH THE NEXT WEAK SYS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10KT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10
TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 18 TO 23 KT BY MID MORNING. GUSTS
LIKELY END BY LATE AFTERNOON, OR BECOME MORE OCCASIONAL BEFORE
ENDING. WINDS THEN DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND
NOON TODAY. HOWEVER, IT IS MARGINAL WITH SW WINDS AT 2 KFT FROM
AROUND 45 KT, WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 50 KT. HAVE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: VFR, POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER LATE IN THE DAY.
S WINDS G15-20 KT LATE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: IFR WITH RAIN. S WINDS G20-25 KT IN THE EVENING,
INCREASING TO 25-40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLWS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY: RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR, THEN RAIN ENDING WITH
VFR. S TO SW WINDS G35-45 KT IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING W G25-35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. LLWS EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-25 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HAZARDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES UNTIL 11PM THIS EVENING. TO EAST
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET, THE SCA FOR THOSE OCEAN ZONES GO UNTIL 3AM
THURSDAY. FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS, SCA GOES INTO EFFECT AT 7AM THIS
MORNING AND GOES UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, 6PM THURSDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT, LASTING
LONGEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES WHERE SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A BRIEF TIME WINDOW OF BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS
AND SEAS RAMP UP QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS AND WIND GUSTS ARE
THE HIGHEST FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE GOING ON A MORE
DECREASING TREND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
FORECAST ACROSS ALL WATERS MAINLY IN A WINDOW FROM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SOME PARTS OF THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY
COULD GET TO LOW END STORM CRITERIA (48-50 KT) BUT MUCH OF THE TIME
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR WITHIN GALE RANGE.
A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS SAT NIGHT AS
WELL AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO MON. A PERIOD OF
GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS AS WELL AS ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND AS SUCH, ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL.
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. OUTSIDE OF MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE RECEIVED, NO OTHER HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE INCREASING WITH A NEW MOON OCCURRING
FRIDAY EVENING. THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BACK BAYS DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH A SLOWER TIMING TIDAL PILING WILL BE INCREASED AND THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS. AT THIS TIME COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
ALONG THE SHORES OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE IS THE ONLY ONE THAT WILL BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTED AT THIS
TIME AS THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS LOWER, AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE WESTERLY AT THAT TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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