296
FXUS61 KOKX 171938
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
238 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY APPROACHES THEREAFTER AND MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
WARM FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT. ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS DECENT, NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE PASSAGE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
BE AIDING IN HIGHER SKY COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LATEST
CAMS TRENDED HIGHER WITH CLOUDS COVER TONIGHT AS WELL. BECAUSE
OF THIS, TRENDED OUR FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT A BIT HIGHER. BLENDED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE NBM.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW WON'T REALLY KICK IN UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/FREEZING FOG
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IF A STRONGER/EARLIER RETURN FLOW
KICKS IN.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN
* TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN TO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY
LEFTOVER SNOWMELT AND MOISTURE LADEN GROUNDS MAY FREEZE IF
WINDS ARE UNABLE TO DRY OUT THE AREA.
THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE
OPENING UP AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT WILL DRAG A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA GETS TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO DEPART.
THIS BRINGS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. AN
IMPRESSIVE LLJ DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS THE JET PEAKING ~65 TO 70KT AT 950MB AND ~70 TO
75KT AT 925MB. THOUGH WIND GUST FORECAST GIVEN THIS LLJ AND A
MODERATE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, DECIDED TO GO WIND
ADVISORY EVERYWHERE SINCE A DECENT PERCENTAGE OF THESE STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY BE ABLE TO GET MIXED DOWN.
NOT THINKING THUNDER WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
LACK OF ANY CAPE. IF ANYTHING MORE ORGANIZED DID DEVELOP, IN
THIS LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SITUATION IT WOULD LIKELY BE A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A DECENT PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAIN, ANY HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO A
SHORTER PERIOD SOMETIME EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND THEN WINDS BECOME
W/NW. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AT THIS TIME WITH DECENT COLD
ADVECTION. IF WE AREN'T ABLE TO MIX DOWN STRONG WINDS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, THEN FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT MAY END UP
HAVING THE STRONGER WINDS. KEPT THE ADVISORY UP THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING TO COVER THIS.
TEMPERATURES DROP QUICK FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF
LEFTOVER SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL BEING ABLE TO FREEZE. THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THOSE WINDS CAN DRY OUT THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT.
* TEMPERATURES MODERATED SAT-SUN, BUT FRIGID TEMPS RETURN ON MON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY FROM THE SOUTH EARLY ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO BRINGS A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE LOW, SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE
COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO LEAD TO A FEW
'BRIEF' LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON SUNDAY.
WE'LL DRY OUT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT UNDER WESTERLY WINDS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BRINGING IN EVEN DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRIOR TO THE SECONDARY FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MODERATED
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH MOST ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT BRINGING IN COOLER
CONTINENTAL AIR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK
TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE UNDER A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH, SO EXPECT
A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH COLD AIR SETTLED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND LOWS RETURN TO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BACKS TO THE SOUTH AS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM CANADA LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL A LITTLE MURKY WITH SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT POPS DO RETURN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THURSDAY.
VFR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AROUND 4-5KFT TODAY, BEFORE
CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL REMOVE THE GUSTS FROM A PREVAILING GROUP AND
TEMPO THE GUSTS SINCE GUSTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MATERIALIZE LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF LLWS IN THE TAFS, HOWEVER
ANY LLWS SHOULD END BY 20Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: VFR, POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER LATE
IN THE DAY. S WINDS G15-20 KT LATE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: IFR WITH RAIN. S WINDS G20-25 KT IN THE EVENING,
INCREASING TO 25-40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLWS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY: RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR, THEN RAIN ENDING WITH
VFR. S TO SW WINDS G35-45 KT IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING W G25-35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. LLWS EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EARLY IN
THE MORNING. W WINDS G20-25 KT.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY STEPS DOWN.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND GOING UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY. 40
TO 45 KT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. DURING
THE MORNING PERIOD, ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES, PECONIC AND GARDINER'S BAYS AND THE
EASTERN LI SOUND.
A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS SAT NIGHT AS
WELL AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO MON. A PERIOD OF
GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS AS WELL AS ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND AS SUCH, ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL.
AROUND 1 INCH TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. WHILE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL MAINLY BE AROUND
0.25IN/HR OR LOWER, HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ABLE TO PUT OUT RATE CLOSER TO 0.50-0.75IN/HR.
OUTSIDE OF MINOR FLOODING IN LOW- LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
RECEIVED, NO OTHER HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE INCREASING WITH A NEW MOON OCCURRING
FRIDAY EVENING. THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BACK BAYS DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH A SLOWER TIMING TIDAL PILING WILL BE INCREASED AND THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS. AT THIS TIME COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
ALONG THE SHORES OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE IS THE ONLY ONE THAT WILL BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTED AT THIS
TIME AS THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS LOWER, AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE WESTERLY AT THAT TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...BR/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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