002
FXUS61 KOKX 180730
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
230 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AS DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
QUIET BEFORE THE STORM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST,
AND THEN SOUTHERLY, AS A RESULT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK
THIS MORNING, AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
* POTENTIAL TYING OR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY
FALL BACK INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT, TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE MAY FREEZE IF DRYING DOES NOT OCCUR.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND INTO
THE THE NORTHEAST, BECOMING NEGATIVE, BY LATE FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST,
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
AN IMPRESSIVE LLJ DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH 900 MB WINDS OF 60 TO 80 KT. WITH A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL NOT BE MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, WITH THE CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, THE HIGHER WINDS MAY BE
BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE. WITH THIS POTENTIAL A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND THEN WINDS BECOME
W/NW. GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AT THIS TIME WITH DECENT COLD
ADVECTION AND WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY COULD BE AS STRONG OR
STRONG THAN WITH THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WITH EARLY HIGHS FRIDAY MORNING THERE IS THE CHANCE OF TYING OR
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT A FEW OF THE CLIMATE
LOCATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS. TEMPERATURES THEN
FALL LATE MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE FREEZING BEFORE DRYING CAN OCCUR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK.
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS WEEKEND, BUT FRIGID TEMPS RETURN ON
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN TOWARDS MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY FROM THE SOUTH EARLY ON SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO BRINGS A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE LOW, SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE
COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO LEAD TO A FEW
BRIEF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT, LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO REMAIN DRY ENOUGH SO NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
WE'LL DRY OUT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT UNDER WESTERLY WINDS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BRINGING IN EVEN DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRIOR TO THE SECONDARY FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MODERATED
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH MOST ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT BRINGING IN COOLER
CONTINENTAL AIR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK
TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE UNDER A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH, SO EXPECT
A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH COLD AIR SETTLED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND LOWS RETURN TO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BACKS TO THE SOUTH AS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM CANADA LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL A LITTLE MURKY WITH SOME
VARIABILITY AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT POPS DO RETURN
TOWARDS AND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST EARLY TODAY. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
VFR. CHANCE IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING IN RAIN 00Z-06Z FRIDAY.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS BECOME SE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY RAMP UP THIS EVENING
WITH A CHANCE OF SSW LLWS DEVELOPING TOWARD 06Z. S WINDS STEADILY
INCREASE TO 20-35KT G35-40KT BY 12Z FRIDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER AS EARLY AS 00Z FRI, ESPECIALLY AT KEWR
AND KTEB. TIMING OF WIND/WIND GUSTS AND RAIN COULD VARY BY 1-3
HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE TONIGHT: MVFR TO IFR WITH RAIN. S WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 25-
40 KT. SSW LLWS 50-60KT AT 1500-2000KFT.
FRIDAY: RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR, THEN RAIN ENDING WITH
VFR. S TO SW WINDS G35-45 KT IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING W G25-35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. LLWS EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EARLY IN
THE MORNING. W WINDS G20-25 KT.
MONDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND GUSTS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WITH THE GALE WARNING THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 TO 45 KT WIND GUSTS DURING LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
DURING THE MORNING PERIOD, ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 50 KT ARE
POSSIBLE.
A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS SAT NIGHT
AS WELL AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO MON. A
PERIOD OF GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS AS WELL AS ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND AS SUCH, ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL.
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 1/4 INCHES OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS, ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL MAINLY
BE AROUND 0.25IN/HR OR LOWER, HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE RATES CLOSER TO 0.50-0.75IN/HR.
OUTSIDE OF MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
RECEIVED, NO OTHER HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 19:
KEWR: 60/1931
KBDR: 57/1967
KNYC: 58/1931
KLGA: 57/1957
KJFK: 56/1967
KISP: 55/2017
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE INCREASING WITH A NEW MOON OCCURRING
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AS LITTLE AS 2 FT OR SURGE
CAUSING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS. A GALE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.
THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE (WINDSHIFT) RELATIVE TO THE FRI AM
HIGH TIDE WILL DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACTS WILL BE. WINDSHIFT AFTER TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS
VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES ALONG NY/NJ HARBOR, JAMAICA BAY,
WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY (ISOLATED MODERATE), AND COASTAL
WESTCHESTER/CT. A WINDSHIFT BEFORE HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY KEEP
IMPACTS MORE LOCALIZED AND MORESO CONFINED TO NYC/NJ METRO,
JAMAICA BAY AND WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.
OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL END THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
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