177
FXUS61 KOKX 020614
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
114 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A
WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN PASSES NEARBY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THEN SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WITH THE POLAR JET DROPPING INTO THE AREA AND THE LLVLS
SATURATED AND NEAR -12C OR COLDER, LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CAN
BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG. HAVE ADDED FLURRIES WHERE THE NBM
HAS NO POPS. BEST CHANCE FOR A DUSTING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT.
RISING CLOUD BASES AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT THE FLURRY
POTENTIAL THRU THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING TNGT. HIGH CLOUDS HOWEVER
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY SUNRISE
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* CHANCE FOR LGT SNOW SAT NGT.
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHRTWV. LOOKS LIKE
A CLIPPER TYPE SYS. LIFT AND MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE TIMEHEIGHTS,
SO WOULD EXPECT PERHAPS A DUSTING OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST
MOVING SYS. RIGHT NOW THE SRN STREAM LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN TO
FAR S OF THE CWA TO ENHANCE THE PCPN FIELD.
STUCK WITH THE NBM POPS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE, BUT THEY SEEM TOO
LOW BASED ON THE SETUP. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS IN THE MODELING,
POPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST IN THE LIKELY RANGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
* CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY MEETING ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
FCST IS THE NBM HERE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THINKING.
ONE THING TO LOOK FOR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LGT FZRA TUE
NGT INTO WED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH THE
WARMING AIRMASS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO FZRA IN THE GRIDS,
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS IT IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAY
BREAK.
W-WNW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH 12Z. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE A
BIT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, BECOMING 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-
25 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL LIKELY END 21-23Z FRIDAY WITH W-
WNW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN -SN THROUGH 09Z.
START AND END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATE TONIGHT-SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR
25 KT AND ELEVATED SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
MORICHES INLET. ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL ON
ALL WATERS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVEN FOR
ANZ350- 353-355.
JMC/DS
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