301
FXUS61 KOKX 021442
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
942 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN PASSES
NEARBY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THEN SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SNOW FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR JET AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND CROSSES
THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE MID DECK THIS MORNING, REPLACED BY
STRATOCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SNOW FLURRY POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE (MID 20S INTERIOR TO LOWER 30S
CITY/COAST)
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
* CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM WITH WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHRTWV. LOOKS LIKE
A CLIPPER TYPE SYS. LIFT AND MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE TIMEHEIGHTS,
SO WOULD EXPECT PERHAPS A DUSTING OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST
MOVING SYS. RIGHT NOW THE SRN STREAM LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN TO
FAR S OF THE CWA TO ENHANCE THE PCPN FIELD.
STUCK WITH THE NBM POPS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE, BUT THEY SEEM TOO
LOW BASED ON THE SETUP. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS IN THE MODELING,
POPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST IN THE LIKELY RANGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
* CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY MEETING ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
FCST IS THE NBM HERE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST THINKING.
ONE THING TO LOOK FOR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LGT FZRA TUE
NGT INTO WED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH THE
WARMING AIRMASS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO FZRA IN THE GRIDS,
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS IT IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR.
W-WNW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL LIKELY END 21-23Z WITH W-WNW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
START AND END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT, AND ELEVATED SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT EAST
OF MORICHES INLET. ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
25 KT POSSIBLE.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DBR/JC
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
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