468
FXUS61 KOKX 021839
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS MONDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIDING NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEARBY AND LIKELY NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND DRAGS A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BACKSIDE POLAR SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND CROSSES THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE STRATO-CU WITH
ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE INTRO EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF
SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE. DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND GUSTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE WITH RISING HEIGHTS, AND MODERATING
POLAR HIGH BUILDING TOT HE SW OF THE AREA.
MIXED LOW-LEVEL WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S CITY/COAST AND TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
* A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OR SNOW SHOWERS, WITH A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION, FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM.
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW ON SATURDAY AT BASED OF POLAR JET, GIVING
WAY TO A DIGGING NORTHER STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SAT NIGHT,
CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY, AND PIVOTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PHASING OF THIS NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WITH A
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TAKING PLACE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM SAT NIGHT, SLIDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A STRONGER SOUTHERN LOW
TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD SAT AND SUN, WITH HIGHS UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S FOR CITY/COAST AND MID TO UPPER 20S INTERIOR.
AFTER SOME MORNING SUN ON SAT, INCREASING HIGH AND MID-DECK AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER FORCING. APPROACHING PVA AND RRQ OF STRENGTHENING
ULJ, WITH WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OF SNOW
ACROSS INTERIOR-PARTICULARLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS (WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS) AND SE CT/E LI (SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND JET LIFT). FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONGST CAMS,
OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, AND GFS/ECMWF AI
MODELS FOR A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW ACROSS THESE AREAS. HAVE
INCREASED FROM NBM LOW CHANCE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. NYC/NJ METRO MAY ONLY SEE BRIEF SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH LESS FORCING/MOISTURE.
CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDES OFFSHORE SUN AM, WITH BOMBING OFFSHORE LOW
HEADING TOWARDS NEW FOUNDLAND THRU SUN NIGHT. SHOT OF CAA ON GUSTY
NW WINDS IN WAKE OF CLIPPER ON SUNDAY, SLOWLY RELENTING SUN NIGHT AS
MODERATING POLAR HIGHS SLIDE TOWARDS THE AREA. SCT-BKN STRATO-
CU ON SUN AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH, WITH CLEARING SKIES SUN
NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR A WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS FAR OUTLYING
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. OTHERWISE LOW
IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY POINT(S):
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK.
* SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES
FOR THE EARLY TO MID WEEK. DEVIATED FROM NBM SOME WITH POPS AND WX
/ WX TYPE, BUT ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR THE TIME
BEING.
THE CURRENT - AO / - NAO TELECONNECTION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GO
MORE NEUTRAL GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO GO MORE TOWARDS A SEMI-ZONAL PATTERN FOR MID WEEK, WITH
BRIEF EAST COAST RIDGING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL, FAST MOVING AND WEAK WX SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. THE FIRST IS
A WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
FOR MONDAY LATE DAY AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY, BUT THE NBM DOES APPEAR TO BE UNDER DOING THE CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SOME AND THUS FOR
NOW HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH RETREATS LATE MONDAY AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THIS SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY SHARPER / TIGHTER. THUS SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND STAYED CLOSE TO NBM POPS FOR THIS SECOND
FEATURE, ALTHOUGH COULD SEE NBM POPS BEING SLIGHTLY UNDER DONE FOR
THIS FEATURE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO WEAR THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SETS UP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM
TONGUE IN THE MID LEVELS AND WITH SOME LEFTOVER NEAR SFC COLD AIR
FURTHER NORTH, HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR TUESDAY EVENING / NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW THIS FAR OUT, BUT HAS INCREASED SOME RELATIVELY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO ADDED IN THIS CHANCE AFTER COLLAB WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRIEFLY BUILD LATE
WED INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER FOR LATE
WEEK. THE WARMEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JANUARY. AS HEIGHTS CLIMB
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 50
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IF THE NEAR SFC WINDS CAN
GATHER MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
VFR. W-WNW WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL LIKELY END 22-00Z WITH WINDS AROUND 10KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20KT POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER 23-
00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY PM: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR EARLY ON SUNDAY
EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN DURING
LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF -FZRA AT KSWF.
WEDNESDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN LIGHT RAIN (EXCEPT -
FZRA AT KSWF) IN THE MORNING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT, AND ELEVATED SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT EAST OF MORICHES
INLET. ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS FROM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AM WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SCA CONDS LIKELY SUN AFT/EVE IN WAKE OF CLIPPER SYSTEM ON THE
OCEAN WATERS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON NEARSHORE WATERS.
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. LATER IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD, TOWARDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE
TYPICALLY VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NYC AND NASSAU COUNTY WITH
SAT AM FULL MOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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