226
FXUS61 KOKX 032324
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
624 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS FROM
THE WEST LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CLIPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH, FINALLY LIFTING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH DURING MID WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING IN THEREAFTER. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
THICKENING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH
DIM SUNSHINE AT BEST FILTERING THROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING. THEN AS A SHARPENING
UPPER TROUGH AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACH FROM THE WEST, SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES INLAND CLOSER
TO WHERE THE WEAKENING SFC LOW WILL BE TRACKING AS IT HEADS FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD UPSTATE NY.
TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS INLAND AND ACROSS THE LONG
ISLAND PINE BARRENS, AND IN THE LOWER/MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINT:
* ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING ALONG AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUGH OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF S CT EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING LOOK DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS, WITH A SOMEWHAT
BRISK NW FLOW AND RETURNING SUNSHINE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS MON NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 20S INVOF NYC AND MOSTLY IN THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.
HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF PRECIP VS NBM FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE AREA, BEGINNING LATE DAY MON WEST OF NYC AND
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE EVENT, WITH ACCUMULATION ONLY A DUSTING IN MOST
PLACES, MAYBE CLOSER TO AN INCH WELL INLAND. PRECIP COULD END
AS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MON NIGHT AS MID LEVELS DRY
OUT, PRECIP TAPERS OFF, AND AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND LOCKS
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR.
HIGHS ON MON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND, TO THE
LOWER/MID 30S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MON NIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
INVOF NYC TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
* A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE
BY SATURDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL COME
AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. WITH A STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT THE PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY FALL AS LIQUID AND BE ABLE TO FREEZE ON THE SURFACE.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET, BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK ICE
ACCRETION AMOUNTS, BUT QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE
LATEST NBM HAVING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
AFTER THAT, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ALL PLAIN RAIN FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE CLIPPER LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A PERIOD OF MVFR, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF IFR MAINLY NORTH, LATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. BEST CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE AT KSWF,
AND MAINTAINED THE TEMPO. AT THE OTHER TERMINALS THE CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ARE MINIMAL, AND CHANGED TEMPOS TO PROB30S. BEST
CHANCES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE AT KSWF WITH 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE LITTLE TO A TENTH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT WNW UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LOW AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO
THE WEST, NW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY, 15 TO AROUND 20
KT. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, AND THEN END QUICKLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS WELL AS CATEGORICAL CHANGES TO MVFR, WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF IFR.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS GUST 15-20 KT, GUSTS ENDING AFTER
06Z..
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: VFR DURING THE DAY. MVFR OR LOWER WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN, FREEZING RAIN AT KSWF AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE RAIN AND MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE NW FLOW COULD GUST TO
25 KT AT TIMES ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT, COVERAGE AND
DURATION LOOK TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN SCA.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE TIDAL WATERS
OF NE NJ AND STATEN ISLAND, AND FOR JAMAICA BAY AND THE BACK
BAYS OF NASSAU, FOR THE SUN MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
BRIEF/LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THE MORE VULNERABLE
SPOTS IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO TO ELEVATED HIGH TIDES FROM THE FULL
MOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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