842
FXUS61 KOKX 041231
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
731 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CLIPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN TO THE SOUTH, FINALLY
LIFTING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH DURING MID WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
THEREAFTER. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS HAS RESULTED IN
LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME WAS CONFINED ACROSS LI AND CT WHERE A
DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. MUCH OF
THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 10 AM.
HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH MOST PLACES RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINT:
* ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING ALONG AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUGH OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FCST THINKING WITH THE NBM FOLLOWED THRU
MON NGT.
COLD TNGT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA MON AFTN AND
EVE. THE NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IS AGAIN FAVORED FOR THE STEADIEST
PCPN. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE EVENT, WITH ACCUMULATION ONLY A DUSTING IN MOST
PLACES, MAYBE CLOSER TO AN INCH WELL INLAND. PRECIP COULD END AS
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MON NIGHT AS MID LEVELS DRY
OUT, PRECIP TAPERS OFF, AND AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND LOCKS
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR.
HIGHS ON MON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND, TO THE LOWER/MID
30S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MON NIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S INVOF
NYC TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
* A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE
BY SATURDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AND FCST. THE NBM
WAS FOLLOWED.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL COME
AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. WITH A STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT THE PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY FALL AS LIQUID AND BE ABLE TO FREEZE ON THE SURFACE.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET, BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK ICE
ACCRETION AMOUNTS, BUT QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
AFTER THAT, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ALL PLAIN RAIN FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
BRIEF MVFR THIS MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
VFR.
NNW WINDS THIS MORNING 10 KT OR LESS, BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE. SNOW ENDS LATE AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR DURING THE DAY. MVFR OR LOWER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS
THRU THU. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WED NGT AND THU
BEHIND A FRONTAL SYS, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE MODELED TO REMAIN BLW
25 KT ATTM.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS UP FOR THE TIDAL WATERS OF NE
NJ AND STATEN ISLAND, AND FOR JAMAICA BAY AND THE BACK BAYS OF
NASSAU, FOR THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. BRIEF/LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THE MORE VULNERABLE SPOTS IN THOSE
AREAS DUE TO TO ELEVATED HIGH TIDES FROM THE FULL MOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...DW
AVIATION...DW
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