633
FXUS61 KOKX 042057
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND PASS SOUTH ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK DOMINATES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND ATTM WHERE COVERAGE IS MORE SCATTERED.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT. THEN
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, WITH ONE LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS
NORTH BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NY AND ANOTHER REMAINING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS, CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL RIDE THE FRONT ON MON SHOULD START TO
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT WELL NW OF NYC.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS INLAND AND IN THE
LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS, TO THE LOWER/MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW MON INTO MON EVENING WHILE THE FRONT CONTINUES
SINKING TO OUR SOUTH.
* A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT, BRINGING THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INLAND.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS ON MON SHOULD BRING CHANCE
POP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE TO AREAS NORTH OF NYC, WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF NE NJ, NYC AND LONG ISLAND. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT, A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH, BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED SPOTS WELL INLAND NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR GETTING CLOSER TO AN INCH. TEMPS ON MON WILL
TOP OUT IN THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN FALL TO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S AT NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON MON, AND
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND SCOOTING OFF
TO THE EAST MON NIGHT SHOULD FORCE IT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.
DAYTIME TUE LOOKS DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH PRECIP FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM HOLDING OFF MOSTLY UNTIL NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMING ON TUE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S, SO EXPECT
P-TYPE FOR MOST OF NE NJ AND ALL OF NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT
TO BE RAIN. WARMER AIR COMING IN ALOFT WHILE SFC TEMPS INLAND FALL
TO AOB FREEZING TUE NIGHT SHOULD HOWEVER LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR INTERIOR NE NJ, LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY, AND S CT (MAINLY NEAR OR NORTH/WEST OF THE I-287 TO
MERRITT PKWY CORRIDOR). ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND/OR ICE
ACCRETION SHOULD BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW AND JUST A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. AI-GFS SUGGESTS MORE IN THE WAY OF QPF,
WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD LEAD TO SNOWFALL AMTS CLOSER TO AN INCH
AND ICE CLOSER TO 1/10 OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL DAYS WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAINLY PLAIN RAIN EVENT WITH
GUSTY WINDS.
NBM WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH MINOR TWEAKS.
AFTER A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE STRAIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK/START
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL AID IN THE WARMING TREND THAT IS
EXPECTED WHERE TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO AGREE MORE ON A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD. A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH POTENTIAL
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS
TRACK AND PATTERN, THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ALL PLAIN RAIN EVENT
FOR US. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF SEEING AN
INCH OF LIQUID TOTAL FOR THIS EVENT.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE SOME POSSIBLE MVFR STRATUS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR SOME SITES INCLUDING KSWF AND AGAIN FOR KSWF FOR
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH HAS A
CHANCE FOR MVFR WITHIN LIGHT SNOW.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY NW THROUGH TONIGHT, VARIABLE EARLY
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY NEAR 5-10 KTS. SOME GUSTS ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE BUT ARE ONLY
EXPECTED PART OF THE TIME AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE THE TIMING OF WIND GUSTS.
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO INCLUDE IN FUTURE TAFS ALONG
WITH MVFR IF PROBABILITY OF SNOW INCREASES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. MAY HAVE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN
TOWARDS NIGHT BEFORE ALL PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. CHANCES OF
MVFR AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AT NIGHT,
CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX AT KSWF. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE RAIN AND MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX EARLY FOR KSWF AND MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
COULD SEE NW WINDS GUST BRIEFLY TO 25 KT EARLY THIS EVENING ON
THE OCEAN W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN AGAIN
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK MON ON THE OCEAN S OF MONTAUK. SCA WILL
NOT BE ISSUED FOR THESE DUE TO BRIEF DURATION/SPARSE COVERAGE,
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.
A BRIEF WINDOW OF 5-FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
WED NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. SCA COND WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
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