088
FXUS61 KOKX 051143
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF LOWS WILL EMERGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* A WEAK LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY PASSES TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT, PRODUCING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS CHANCE OF MIXING WITH
RAIN ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW LONDON COUNTY CT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT BRIEFLY SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY DUE TO BOTH THERMAL FORCING AND LFQ
DYNAMICS FROM A PASSING UPPER JET. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN INCH. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR 0.1 OR MORE OF SNOWFALL
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN CT
(PARTICULARLY SE CT) AND EASTERN LI, WHERE SOME THERMAL FORCING
AND MOISTURE LINGERS. A GRADUALLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING IN OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW LONDON COUNTY CT. ONCE
AGAIN, CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME AND AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. IF CONFIDENCE IN SEEING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INCREASES,
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. A WEAK RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST AND THE UPPER 20S INLAND.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY,
ALSO PASSING TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY NY.
* WARMING TREND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 40S.
A FAST MOVING PAC SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
JET WILL SEND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY TO NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WARMING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A MAINLY RAIN
EVENT TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME WEAK COLD
AIR DAMMING AND IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AT THIS TIME, THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY AN
ISSUE FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL AND EVEN GET ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY.
ONCE GAIN THIS IS LOW QPF EVENT, AND ANY ACCRETION WOULD BE
LIGHT. WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
PREFERRED A SOLUTION A BIT SLOWER THAN THE NBM, ACHIEVED BY
BLENDING IN SOME OF THE 00Z CONSALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET INTO THE 40S. THIS IS
ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS HEADING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH PER NBM, BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND NBM DEFICIENCY IN THESE SCENARIOS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL DAYS WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A RAIN EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK LOW PASSES N OF THE AREA THIS EVE. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES ON TUE.
VFR THIS MRNG. PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTN WITH ANY -SN
THAT IMPACTS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN TNGT, BUT
MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN LIKELY AT THE COASTS. THE PCPN
TAPERS OFF MOST LIKELY AFT 6Z, WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR OR LOWER
ERN ARPTS, AND LOW END VFR THE REST OF THE AREA ATTM.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FCST
ATTM.
LGT NW/VRB WINDS BECOME S THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH
A LIGHT SW FLOW THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME LGT AND VRB AGAIN
TNGT AND TUE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE TIMING OF ANY -SN THIS AFTN.
RASN MAY REMAIN N AND E OF THE ARPTS THIS EVE.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AT NIGHT, CHANCE
OF WINTRY MIX AT KSWF. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE RAIN AND MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX EARLY FOR KSWF AND MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING, THEN TO
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO JUST UNDER SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS (WENT HIGHER THAN NBM). WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS IN A GUSTY WEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY. SCA SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
QUIET CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
SCA COND WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
LATE TONIGHT: VFR EXCEPT AT KGON WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH
A SNOW/RAIN MIX ENDING A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER 06Z TUESDAY,
BECOMING VFR TOWARD MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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