993
FXUS61 KOKX 051453
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF LOWS WILL EMERGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* A WEAK LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY PASSES TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT, PRODUCING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS CHANCE OF MIXING WITH
RAIN ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW LONDON COUNTY CT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BEING PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BOTH THERMAL
FORCING AND LFQ DYNAMICS FROM A PASSING UPPER JET. ANY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN INCH. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR 0.1 OR
MORE OF SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN CT
(PARTICULARLY SE CT) AND EASTERN LI, WHERE SOME THERMAL FORCING
AND MOISTURE LINGERS. A GRADUALLY WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING IN OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW LONDON COUNTY CT. ONCE
AGAIN, CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME AND AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. IF CONFIDENCE IN SEEING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INCREASES,
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. A WEAK RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST AND THE UPPER 20S INLAND.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY,
ALSO PASSING TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY NY.
* WARMING TREND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 40S.
A FAST MOVING PAC SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
JET WILL SEND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY TO NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WARMING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A MAINLY RAIN
EVENT TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME WEAK COLD
AIR DAMMING AND IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AT THIS TIME, THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY AN
ISSUE FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL AND EVEN GET ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY.
ONCE GAIN THIS IS LOW QPF EVENT, AND ANY ACCRETION WOULD BE
LIGHT. WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
PREFERRED A SOLUTION A BIT SLOWER THAN THE NBM, ACHIEVED BY
BLENDING IN SOME OF THE 00Z CONSALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET INTO THE 40S. THIS IS
ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS HEADING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH PER NBM, BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND NBM DEFICIENCY IN THESE SCENARIOS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL DAYS WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A RAIN EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.
MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, BUT LIKELY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO
RAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND KHPN. ANY PRECIP TAPERS
OFF BY 6Z OR SO, WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR OR LOWER FOR KGON.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, LESS THAN A
HALF INCH.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME S INTO THE AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT
SW FLOW THIS EVENING. WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF ANY -SN THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AT NIGHT, CHANCE
OF WINTRY MIX AT KSWF. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE RAIN AND MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX EARLY FOR KSWF AND MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BRING WIND
GUSTS TO JUST UNDER SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS (WENT HIGHER THAN
NBM). WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS IN A GUSTY WEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. SCA SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.
QUIET CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
SCA COND WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JT/DW
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