530
FXUS61 KOKX 051822
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
122 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR.
* CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW, POTENTIALLY MIXING WITH LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE, TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS SET UP A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUPPORT FROM JUST
DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ANY
COATING/LIGHT ACCUMULATION RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR SE CT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN ANY PRECIP LATE AFTERNOON
TO JUST AFTER SUNSET BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF THERMAL FORCING
SETS UP ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST 12Z CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. THE 12Z NAM IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FIELDS IN THESE
AREAS WITH THE HRRR, WRF- ARW, NSSL-WRF, AND FV3 LESS
AGGRESSIVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOST SATURATED IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE LEVELS ON THE NAM, BUT LESS ON THE OTHER CAMS WHICH
LIKELY THE REASON FOR LESS PRECIP OVERALL. THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER CAMS.
HAVE STUCK WITH A CHANCE POP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT SIMILAR TO THE
NBM, BUT WENT INTO MIDDLESEX AND A PORTION OF NEW HAVEN COUNTIES
AS LIGHT OVERRUNNING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
PRECIP. PTYPE IS A BIT TRICKY AS IT MAY DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF
LOW LEVEL SATURATION AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RISE. ANY PRECIP INITIALLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX WITH PLAIN
RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR A MIX WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS INTERIOR
MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. AN SPS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT LATER THIS EVENING.
THE FORCING PASSES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT PRECIP. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BUT OVERALL
SKIES REMAIN MOST CLOUDY THROUGH DAY BREAK TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR
ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR SW CT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
* WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING CLOSE TO
NORMAL AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL
THEN QUICKLY PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF
THE FORCING PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF THERMAL FORCING/WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM LEADING UP TO
THE SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND
LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN LIKELY
GOING TO DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING AFTER SUNSET ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY INTO SOME SHELTERED AREAS
IN PUTNAM, FAR NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND FAR NORTHERN NEW HAVEN.
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 7PM AND
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ORANGE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND
LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY ONLY END UP JUST
BELOW A TENTH. THERE IS NO COLD AIR SOURCE TO SUPPLY ANY COLDER
AIR THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS
TIME, BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A GLAZE OF ICE
ACROSS INTERIOR ORANGE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY TRANSITION TO POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIQUID EQUIVALENTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND IT IS POSSIBLE COASTAL LOCATIONS ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE RISING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL END BEFORE
SUNRISE. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS ON THE NBM ARE LIKELY TOO
LOW AND INCREASED THEM A BIT GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE WITH
WELL MIXED W FLOW DAYS. GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CLOSE TO 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST. GUSTS
SHOULD START WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S.
* COLD AIR MAKES A COMEBACK BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THURSDAY BEFORE A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING IMPACTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST.
FIRST, A LOW WILL PASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
THROUGH A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING UP TEMPS, AIDED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
ADVECT IN MORE MOISTURE, LEADING TO EVENTUAL RAINFALL.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND/OR
CANADIAN MARITIMES. RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY, BECOMING LIKELY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS, THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH SOME PLACES IN NYC
METRO AND METRO NJ MAKING A RUN FOR 60 WITH POSSIBLE DAILY RECORD
HIGHS BEING BROKEN. IF NOT, SHOULD AT LEAST COME WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
AS THE SFAS LOW EXITS NE, A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP,
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW BRINGS
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. 13Z NBM CURRENTLY BRINGS 1" RAINFALL
PROBS AROUND 20% FOR THE EVENT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING COLDER AS A RESULT OF THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY REACH THE MID/LOW 40S WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY PASS SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
ANY PRECIP THAT FALL WILL BE FROZEN. HOWEVER, GIVEN OVERWHELMINGLY
DRY AIR, WHAT DOES FALL MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND OR WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT IN NATURE, SUCH AS SNOW FLURRIES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.
MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH MOST TERMINALS
LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND VFR. PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT
KGON, BUT MIXING WITH OR FALLING AS LIGHT RAIN. VFR EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS AFTER 3Z TONIGHT.
S FLOW AT OR UNDER 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT SW FLOW
THIS EVENING. WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT E/ESE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE PM.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PROB30 FOR LIGHT SNOW COULD BE PULLED BEFORE 21Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY PM: MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN AT NIGHT,
CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX AT KSWF. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE RAIN AND MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX EARLY FOR KSWF AND MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BRING WIND
GUSTS TO MARGINAL SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE CWF, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SCA CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS, BUT POSSIBLE ON THE NON OCEAN, IN A GUSTY WEST
FLOW. SCA SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS.
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, SCA
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON MOST OR ALL WATERS WITH WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SCA COND
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
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