318
FXUS61 KOKX 060614
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
114 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE LOW WILL PASS OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN THROUGH
THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
ANY LIFT AND FORCING HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION WITH POCKETS
OF LOW CLOUDS LINGERING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BUT OVERALL SKIES REMAIN
MOST CLOUDY THROUGH DAY BREAK. TEMPS PRETTY MUCH HOLD STEADY
OVERNIGHT, PERHAPS DROPPING BY A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR
ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR SW CT TONIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
* A WARMING TREND BEGINS, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING CLOSE TO
NORMAL TODAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S.
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY
PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE FORCING PASSES TO
OUR NORTH, BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF THERMAL FORCING/WARM
ADVECTION SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM LEADING UP TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
INLAND AND LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN LIKELY GOING TO DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING AFTER SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY INTO SOME
SHELTERED AREAS IN PUTNAM, FAR NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND FAR
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN. WARM ADVECTION LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 7 PM AND COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ORANGE COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM
FREEZING RAIN AND LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE VERY LIGHT AND MAY ONLY
END UP JUST BELOW A TENTH. THERE IS NO COLD AIR SOURCE TO
SUPPLY ANY COLDER AIR THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS INTERIOR ORANGE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS TODAY TRANSITION TO POTENTIAL OF LIGHT
RAIN TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHED. QPF WILL WILL BE LIGHT,
AND IT IS POSSIBLE COASTAL LOCATIONS ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE RISING LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES
OFFSHORE EARLY WED MORNING WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL END BEFORE SUNRISE.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES ON WED WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL ALSO FOLLOW ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST. WIND GUSTS ON THE NBM ARE LIKELY TOO LOW AND INCREASED
THEM A BIT GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE WITH WELL MIXED W FLOW
DAYS. GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A FEW SPOTS COULD
REACH CLOSE TO 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD START
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WED NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S.
* COLD AIR MAKES A COMEBACK BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THURSDAY BEFORE A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING IMPACTS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LONG- TERM FORECAST.
FIRST, A LOW WILL PASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING THROUGH A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING UP TEMPS, AIDED BY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND ADVECT IN MORE MOISTURE, LEADING TO EVENTUAL
RAINFALL.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND/OR CANADIAN MARITIMES. RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY, BECOMING LIKELY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS, THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH SOME PLACES
IN NYC METRO AND METRO NJ MAKING A RUN FOR 60 WITH POSSIBLE
DAILY RECORD HIGHS BEING BROKEN. IF NOT, SHOULD AT LEAST COME
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
AS THE SFC LOW EXITS NE, A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP,
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. 13Z NBM CURRENTLY BRINGS
1" RAINFALL PROBS AROUND 20% FOR THE EVENT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING COLDER AS A RESULT OF THE LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY
REACH THE MID/LOW 40S WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY PASS SUNDAY
EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, ANY PRECIP THAT FALL WILL BE FROZEN.
HOWEVER, GIVEN OVERWHELMINGLY DRY AIR, WHAT DOES FALL MAY NOT
REACH THE GROUND OR WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE, SUCH AS SNOW
FLURRIES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT KISP UNTIL ABOUT 07Z-08Z, AND AT KGON UNTIL
09Z, OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY, THEN CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TOWARD EVENING. LIGHT
RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR COND SHOULD THEN DEVELOP TOWARD 00Z WED AT
MOST TERMINALS. FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT KSWF FROM 00Z-05Z WED.
IFR/LIFR COND THEN PREVAIL TOWARD 05Z WED, AND SOME PICKETS OF
VLIFR ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT SW FLOW SHOULD SHIFT NW-N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE
WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTH, THEN BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BY DAYBREAK TUE. A LIGHT E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO AMD EXPECTED. FLIGHT CAT TONIGHT COULD LOWER 1-2 HOURS
EARLIER THAN FCST.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TONIGHT: FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH LIFR/VLIFR COND.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS, BECOMING VFR BY MID
MORNING.
THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND EXPECTED, WITH RAIN
LIKELY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING SCA CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY TO THE OCEAN WATERS, BUT
MAY BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, IN A GUSTY W FLOW. OCEAN SEAS ABOVE 5
FT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED EVENING.
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THU. BY FRIDAY, SCA COND MAY
DEVELOP ON MOST OR ALL WATERS, AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND, AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS/BG
NEAR TERM...DS/BG
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JE/BG
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
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