777
FXUS61 KOKX 060747 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
247 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY LOW TAKES OVER IN
THE GULF OF MAINE AND TRACKS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FROM FRIDAY INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR
ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR SW CT TONIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL SEND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT THAT MAY ONLY GET THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (LI/NYC) LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVING UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONCERN FOR
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN, SPECIFICALLY FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ICE ACCRETION WILL BE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY NY, MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF I-84, AND NORTH OF WOLCOTT IN NEW HAVEN COUNTY CT.
EXPECT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND, TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST. ONCE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN THIS EVENING THERE WILL SOME COOLING TO
THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE. HOWEVER, LATE TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES
WILL LEVEL OFF AND EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ERODES.
AT THIS TIME, PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AND THERE IS
NO COLD AIR SUPPLY (WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXITING) TO OFFSET GRADUAL
WARMING FROM LATENT HEAT OF FREEZING (RAIN FREEZING ON CONTACT
WITH THE FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING SURFACE). IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY MARGINAL.
WIDESPREAD FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE FOG WILL
BE DENSE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MAINLY REFLECT A
CHANGE TO DRIER AIRMASS, WHICH WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO FOLLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTS UP INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WIND GUSTS ON THE NBM ARE LIKELY TOO
LOW AND INCREASED THEM A BIT GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE WITH
WELL MIXED W FLOW DAYS. GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CLOSE TO 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST. GUSTS
SHOULD START WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
THE FAR INTERIOR REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S.
* COLD AIR MAKES A COMEBACK BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT KISP UNTIL ABOUT 07Z-08Z, AND AT KGON UNTIL
09Z, OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY, THEN CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TOWARD EVENING. LIGHT
RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR COND SHOULD THEN DEVELOP TOWARD 00Z WED AT
MOST TERMINALS. FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT KSWF FROM 00Z-05Z WED.
IFR/LIFR COND THEN PREVAIL TOWARD 05Z WED, AND SOME PICKETS OF
VLIFR ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT SW FLOW SHOULD SHIFT NW-N OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE
WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTH, THEN BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BY DAYBREAK TUE. A LIGHT E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO AMD EXPECTED. FLIGHT CAT TONIGHT COULD LOWER 1-2 HOURS
EARLIER THAN FCST.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TONIGHT: FOG AND LOW STRATUS WITH LIFR/VLIFR COND.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS, BECOMING VFR BY MID
MORNING.
THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND EXPECTED, WITH RAIN
LIKELY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY IN A GUSTY W FLOW.
OCEAN SEAS ABOVE 5 FT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, SCA
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON MOST OR ALL WATERS, AND MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
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