095
FXUS61 KOKX 061438
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY LOW TAKES OVER IN
THE GULF OF MAINE AND TRACKS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FROM FRIDAY INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR
ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR SW CT TONIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL SEND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT THAT MAY ONLY GET THROUGH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (LONG ISLAND/NYC) LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
RECEIVING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONCERN FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN, SPECIFICALLY FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SW CT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ICE ACCRETION WILL BE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY
NY, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-84, AND NORTH OF WOLCOTT IN NEW
HAVEN COUNTY CT. EXPECT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND, TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE
COAST. ONCE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN THIS EVENING THERE WILL SOME
COOLING TO THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE. HOWEVER, LATE TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF AND EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ERODES.
HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AND THERE IS NO COLD AIR
SUPPLY (WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXITING) TO OFFSET GRADUAL WARMING
FROM LATENT HEAT RELEASE AS RAIN FREEZES ON CONTACT WITH COLD
SURFACES. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES ARE VERY MARGINAL.
WIDESPREAD FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP
ACROSS. THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MAINLY REFLECT A
CHANGE TO A DRIER AIRMASS, WHICH WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO FOLLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTS UP INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WIND GUSTS ON THE NBM ARE LIKELY TOO LOW
AND INCREASED THEM A BIT GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE ON WELL-
MIXED W FLOW DAYS. GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A FEW
SPOTS COULD REACH CLOSE TO 30 MPH NEAR THE COAST. GUSTS SHOULD
START WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST. THE HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH
MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S.
* COLD AIR MAKES A COMEBACK BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE
MORNING, THEN RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, THEN CIGS RAPIDLY LOWER AFTER
SUNSET. HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS BY ABOUT 1-2
HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS ARRIVING AT THE NYC METROS BY 22Z-23Z,
THEN IFR COND BY 00Z-01Z AND LIFR COND AFTER 03Z-04Z. SOME DENSE
FOG WITH VSBY 1/4SM MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AT THE NYC
METROS, KHPN, AND KISP.
LIGHT NE/E FLOW BECOMES E-SE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN
FLIGHT CAT TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE NYC METROS AS WINDS SHIFT W
AND START TO INCREASE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO LOWER.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: IFR EARLY AT THE NYC METROS, IMPROVING TO MVFR BY
MID MORNING AND THEN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD
TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER AT THE TERMINALS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. WNW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WNW WINDS 10-15G20KT EARLY.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: RAIN LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
MVFR COND EXPECTED, IFR POSSIBLE. S WINDS 10-15G20KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: RAIN LIKELY. MVFR COND EXPECTED, IFR POSSIBLE.
SE WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY IN A GUSTY W
FLOW. OCEAN SEAS ABOVE 5 FT WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, SCA
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON MOST OR ALL WATERS, AND MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BG/MET
MARINE...BG/BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page