261
FXUS61 KOKX 062044
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND, WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING IN THE
GULF OF MAINE. THE WHOLE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN
LOCALLY THROUGH THURSDAY. A DUAL FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND THE INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SLICK
CONDITIONS ON THE COLDEST SURFACES, INCLUDING BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.
* AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO TONIGHT,
WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC LIFTING THROUGH LOCALLY. THE ASSOCIATED WAA AND FRONTAL
FORCING WILL HELP INSTIGATE PRECIPITATION BY THIS EVENING THAT
LINGERS INTO WED AM FOR SOME AREAS. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER AND QPF IS LIGHT, UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
REGIONWIDE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING IN THE
800-950 MB LAYER THAT WILL PRECLUDE ANY PTYPE OTHER THAN RAIN.
THAT SAID, LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THE COLDEST LOCALES OF THE INTERIOR WITH THE ACTIVITY.
OPTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ORANGE AND PUTNAM CO IN THE LOHUD
VALLEY, AS WELL AS ALL OF INTERIOR S CT FOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH 12Z HREF'S FRAM AND WPC
GUIDANCE, HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
GLAZE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY ZONES. MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN IS THE COLDEST LOCALES NORTH AND WEST OF I-84,
AS WELL AS AREAS ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY, WHERE DRAINAGE FROM
THE NORTH COULD ASSIST IN KEEPING MARGINALLY COLD AIR IN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS FOR ICE ACCRETION WILL BE MARGINAL
HOWEVER; ABSENCE OF SEEDING ALOFT, TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AND THERE'S NO SYNOPTIC
INJECTION OF COLD AIR COMING. AND THOUGH SURFACE FLOW IS WEAK,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AND RISE SLIGHTLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE COLD AIR ERODES. STILL, LIKELY WILL SEE AT
LEAST LOCALIZED POCKETS OF ZR AS TEMPERATURES WET BULB TOWARD OR
JUST UNDER THE FREEZING MARK IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS. ELSEWHERE,
INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST, A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL
INTERMITTENTLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, LARGELY TAPERING BY
DAYBREAK.
ALSO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, WHICH
COULD BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS, IF NOT EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD,
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
* DRIER AND MILDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MID MORNING IN SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY EAST, AS THE UPPER TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK AT THIS POINT HOWEVER AND ADDITIONAL ICING IS NOT EXPECTED.
DRYING CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE
EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND A BIT BLUSTERY WEST WINDS ALSO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM, WITH GUSTS LIKELY APPROACH
30 MPH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
WEAKENING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, ALLOWING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID 40S FOR MOST.
THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT, GIVING WAY TO AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
* TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
* COLD AIR MAKES A COMEBACK AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A DUAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
FOLLOWING A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND/OR CANADIAN
MARITIMES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. RAIN COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT, RAINFALL MAY TEMPORARILY GET CUT OFF AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW EXITING THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. GUIDANCE VARIES ON THIS. SHOULD THE FRONT PUSH THROUGH,
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STILL RETURN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD
BRING IN MORE RAINFALL.
GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS, THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS NE, A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP,
DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW BRINGS
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS NOTABLY TRENDED MUCH SLOWER IN GLOBAL
GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. 13Z NBM CURRENTLY BRINGS 1"
RAINFALL PROBS AROUND 40% FOR THE TOTAL EVENT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING COLDER AS A RESULT OF THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY REACH THE MID/LOW 40S BEFORE
FROPA. HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SETS FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO A
DRY START TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA INTO TONIGHT, POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
VFR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN CEILINGS RAPIDLY LOWER,
BECOMING IFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE NYC
TERMINALS. AT 20Z PATCHY STRATUS AROUND 1500 FT WAS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING, AND DELAYED ONSET BY AN HOUR. TIMING OF
LOWERING CONDITIONS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND MAY STILL BE AN HOUR
OR SO LATER THAN FORECAST. BY LATE TONIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY
BECOME LIFR WITH A PERIOD OF VLIFR OVERNIGHT, AND MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST. ANY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AT KSWF
EARLY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DID NOT INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT KGON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, AND LIKELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME
WSW WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN W AROUND 15KT GUSTING 20-25KT BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY INTO TONIGHT FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES AND
TIMING OF LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR SO
LATER THAN FORECAST.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR, EXCEPT AT KGON MVFR BECOMING VFR BY 20Z.
WNW WINDS 15-20G25-30KT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: RAIN LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
MVFR, LOWERING TO IFR AT NIGHT. S WINDS 10-15G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: RAIN WITH IFR LIKELY, MVFR POSSIBLE. SE WINDS G15-20KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR, CHANCE OF IFR. W WINDS G20-30KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
PRODUCING SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY IN A GUSTY W
FLOW. WINDS LIGHTEN WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT OCEAN SEAS AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT LIKELY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE LOWERING. THEREAFTER, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY, SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON OCEAN WATERS WITH WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SCA COND WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY. A FEW GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON OCEAN
WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON OCEAN WATERS INTO MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BR/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...BR/DR
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