324
FXUS61 KOKX 230004
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
704 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MID NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
THAT TIME FRAME FOR MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -5 AND
-10.
2.) CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE LONG LEAD TIME WINTER STORM
WATCHES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND USHER IN AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NOT ONLY WILL ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
15-20 MPH. THIS WILL COMBINE TO BRING MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN TO -5 TO -10. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED. NBM TEMPS WERE
FOLLOWED, BUT WINDS WERE ADJUSTED CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE DUE TO A KNOWN LOW BIAS.
THE FRIGID AIR MASS REMAINS ON SATURDAY, AND FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE TEENS REGION-WIDE WILL MAKE IT ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS IN
THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS. RECORD COLD HIGHS COULD BE TIED OR
BROKEN (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AT SOME SITES. WHILE NOT AS
BITTERLY COLD AS SATURDAY, THE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK, LIKELY AIDED BY A FRESH
SNOWPACK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR MOST, AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, AN EXPANSIVE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM THEN
INTO MON. PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY ON
SUNDAY SHOULD DISSIPATE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THE VA CAPES, AND THEN MOVES TO A POSITION JUST
INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NYC METRO
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD NE TO THE REST OF THE
CWA BY DAYBREAK, WITH SOME ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
BY DAYBREAK FOR THE NYC METRO AREA. HEAVY SNOW IS THEN LIKELY
DAYTIME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING VIA STRONG FRONT-END H7-8
FRONTOGENETIC AND THERMAL FORCING AIDED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER
JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, SNOW RATIOS
LOOK TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE (15:1) AT THE ONSET, AND THEN
SETTLE DOWN A LITTLE CLOSER TO 12:1 AS HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
AND THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SLOWLY WARM.
DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD INTRUDE ALOFT TO FORCE A BRIEF
MIX WITH SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
NYC AND LONG ISLAND. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING, AND AT ANY RATE THE DAMAGE WILL HAVE BEEN DONE
WELL BEFORE THEN AS FAR AS MEETING 6+ INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT SHOULD BE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
INCHES. WATCH MENTIONS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 6-12 INCHES WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 12 OR MORE INCHES. THE ABOVE QPF WITH HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS YIELDS WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER A FOOT.
AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM EXITS NORTH AND EAST INTO MONDAY, THE
DEEPENING LOW AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL,
THOUGH HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD BE OVER BY THAT POINT.
COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG ISSUE WITH THIS
STORM. NYHOPS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ON
THE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE BIAS-CORRECTED
STOFS SHOWS WATER LEVELS AT NEARLY ALL SITES REMAINING BELOW
MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS AS TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN BELOW 2 FT.
UNCERTAINTY IS ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO THE LONG LEAD TIME, AND
GUIDANCE CAN SOMETIMES BE SLOW TO CATCH UP WITH UNFOLDING LONGER
TERM EVENTS, SO IF DEPARTURES ARE CLOSER TO 2.5 FT, THEN SOME
MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT,
THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
VFR. WSW-W WINDS 10-15KT, BCMG MORE WNW TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FRIDAY MORNING PUSH, INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY. AFTERNOON
WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT - STILL PREVAILING
SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC. WINDS VEERING MORE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAY BEGIN 05Z-06Z AND LAST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE MORNING PUSH.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT. MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY: SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ENDING ON MONDAY. NE WINDS 10-15KT
G20-25KT, BECOMING NW ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN AND
SOUND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED SEAS, 20-30 KT
WINDS AND AIR TEMPS IN THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY (ACCUMULATION OF 0.3 INCHES TO 0.8 INCHES PER
HOUR). THE OVERLAND TECHNIQUE WAS MAINLY FOLLOWED, BUT
STALLABRASS AND MINCOG MODELS AS VIEWED ON OPC'S FREEZING SPRAY
GUIDANCE PAGE ARE ALSO SHOWING MODERATE VESSEL ICING RATES.
OTHER BAY AREAS AND THE NEW YORK HARBOR WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
WAVES HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MODERATE VESSEL ICING, BUT SOME
LIGHT ICING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
SCA ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE MOST OF TONIGHT, BUT THEN A LULL MAY BE
POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS PICK
BACK UP ON FRI WITH CONDITIONS CLOSE TO GALE, SO AN UPGRADE TO A
GALE WARNING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ON ALL OTHER WATERS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO FINALLY FALL
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
AS A WINTER STORM AFFECTS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, NE GALES MAY
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN, AND ON ALL WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL (WITH SCA COND) BEFORE NW
GALES RESUME LATE MON AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND ON ALL
WATERS MON NIGHT. THESE GALES MAY LINGER INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN.
FOLLOWING THAT, SCA COND LIKELY ON ALL WATERS INTO TUE NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 24:
KEWR: 15/1936
KBDR: 20/2014
KNYC: 6/1882
KLGA: 18/1987
KJFK: 19/1987
KISP: 19/2014
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR CTZ005>012.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-335-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/JT
AVIATION...JC/DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JT
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