900
FXUS61 KOKX 231137
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SLEET TO MIX IN SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A MAJOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS EXPECTED.
2.) AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES IN LATER TODAY, WITH SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL VALUES
FALL TO BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
3.) MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS POSSIBLE DURING SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH
TIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTH BEFORE
REDEVELOPING OFF CAPE HATTERAS, PASSING NEAR OR JUST INSIDE THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK INTO MONDAY.
AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL, AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES
IN AHEAD OF THE STORM. 925 MB TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TOWARD -20C OR
BELOW ON SATURDAY, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROGGED IN THE
TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON, SETTING UP ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS
IN SEVERAL YEARS. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO FALL EVERYWHERE AT THE
ONSET, WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY EITHER VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, OR MORE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND OR AFTER
DAYBREAK. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THEN APPEAR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON VIA THE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC AND
THERMAL FORCING AIDED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET TO THE NORTH.
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS PERIOD LIKELY ECLIPSE 1 IN/HR AT TIMES,
PERHAPS CLOSER TO 2 IN/HR. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
INITIALLY, SLRS START OUT ON THE HIGHER SIDE (15-18:1) AT ONSET,
GRADUALLY FALLING BACK TOWARD 10:1 OR LOWER ALONG THE COAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVELS WARM. WITH GUIDANCE HAVING
ADJUSTED TO A CLOSER TO THE COAST SURFACE LOW, THE PROXIMITY
INTRODUCES THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH WARM AIR INTRUSION AROUND
800 MB FOR THE SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET SUNDAY
EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ARE ALONG THE COAST, INCLUDING
LONG ISLAND AND NYC METRO. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
GOING NORTH, WITH ALL SNOW STILL THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION INTO
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. FREEZING RAIN
OR DRIZZLE ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT ICING
APPEARS UNLIKELY.
AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO MONDAY,
THE BOUNDARY COOLS ONCE AGAIN, AND ANY WINTRY MIX LIKELY TAPERS
AS SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY LIGHT.
FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
COAST. THIS IS DUE TO THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AS THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THOUGH THE
HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH THE BULK OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING PRIOR TO ANY POTENTIAL CHANGEOVER. WITH QPF PROGGED
OVER AN INCH, AREAS THAT REMAIN ALL SNOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO YIELD
DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH WARM AIR
IS ABLE TO WORK IN AND FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET, CUTTING DOWN
SNOW TOTALS. ALL SAID, STILL EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD 8 TO 14
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS PERHAPS
APPROACHING A FOOT AND A HALF WHERE BEST BANDING SETS UP AND
PTYPE REMAINS ALL SNOW. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS IS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.
WE REMAIN JUST OVER 48 HOURS FROM EVENT ONSET, SO OPTED FOR NO
HEADLINE CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. IT APPEARS LIKELY WARNINGS WILL
BE WARRANTED FOR ALL AREAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT, DEPENDENT ON
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS IN FORECAST THOUGHT.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST ON WHAT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTION TO TRAVEL
AND DAILY LIFE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TODAY, USHERING IN AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS THAT LIKELY PERSISTS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
NOT ONLY WILL ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOWER TEENS TONIGHT, BUT COUPLED WITH MODEST NW FLOW, WIND
CHILL VALUES FALL TO AS LOW AS 10 BELOW INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT REGIONWIDE.
THE FRIGID AIR REMAINS ON SATURDAY, AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
TEENS WILL MAKE IT ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS IN THE PAST SEVERAL
YEARS. RECORD COLD HIGHS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW) AT SOME SITES.
THE DURATION OF THE COLD APPEARS IMPRESSIVE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 20S EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, LIKELY AIDED BY A FRESH SNOWPACK. ADDITIONAL COLD
HEADLINES MAY BE POSSIBLE, WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO BELOW
ZERO AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 3
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH
TIDE. DEPARTURES NEAR 2.5 FT ARE NEEDED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD
BENCHMARKS, WHICH MAY BE FEASIBLE WITH THE GROWING CONSENSUS OF
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND,
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TOWARDS THE COAST. AT THIS TIME, A BLEND
OF NYHOPS, STOFS, AND ETSS GIVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND, LOWER NY HARBOR,
WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY, AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. THIS
WILL BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS, BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE HERE IS
THAT ANY COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
VFR.
WSW-WNW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING, BECOMING 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WNW-NW THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS LIKELY START TO WEAKEN A BIT TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
GUSTS 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: NW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. VFR THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN MVFR OR LOWER IN
DEVELOPING SNOW.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW. WINTRY MIX OF SLEET
AND SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING NEAR THE COAST. NE WIND GUSTS
20-30 KT.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. N WIND GUSTS
20-25 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN AND SOUND
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED SEAS,
20-30 KT WINDS AND AIR TEMPS IN THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY (ACCUMULATION OF 0.3 INCHES TO 0.8
INCHES PER HOUR). OTHER BAY AREAS AND THE NEW YORK HARBOR WILL
LIKELY NOT SEE WAVES HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MODERATE VESSEL
ICING, BUT SOME LIGHT ICING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE MORNING,
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A FROPA, AND
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. ON
ALL OTHER WATERS, SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 15Z THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS. CONDITIONS LOWER BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES NEARBY EARLY NEXT WEEK, NE GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN, AND ON ALL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS MAY THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THAT, SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE
ON ALL WATERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 24:
KEWR: 15/1936
KBDR: 20/2014
KNYC: 6/1882
KLGA: 18/1987
KJFK: 19/1987
KISP: 19/2014
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...DR/DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR
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