223
FXUS61 KOKX 231921
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
221 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1). ARCTIC AIRMASS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR WIND CHILLS DOWN TO NEAR -10.
2.) A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. A WIDESPREAD 10 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
AND SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS EXPECTED.
3). MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DELIVER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DECREASES ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND WILL MAKE FOR SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN TO NEAR -10 DEGREES AT
TIMES. THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 12PM
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MAJOR WINTER STORM
IMPACTING THE AREA SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AND A
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTH BEFORE
REDEVELOPING OFF CAPE HATTERAS, PASSING NEAR OR JUST INSIDE THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK INTO MONDAY.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH MIXING
WE WILL SEE, IF ANY, ACROSS LONG ISLAND, NYC AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NJ. THERE WERE NO MAJOR JUMPS WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE,
BUT SOME THINGS TO NOTE. THE GFS, WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND THE COLDEST, HAS CONTINUED
ITS GRADUAL NORTHWARD/WARMER TREND. ALMOST ALL OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE AS TICKED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A SINGLE SOLUTION AND
AGREEMENT IS INCREASING.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS, HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED APPROACH ON HOW FAR
MIXING CAN GET INLAND. SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING A SNOW/SLEET MIX
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LONG ISLAND, NYC AND MOST OF
NORTHEAST NJ. THIS IS DUE TO A WARM NOSE MOVING IN AROUND
700-800MB. HAVE ALSO KEPT A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
HUGGING THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRYING IN THE DGZ. THIS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE
AN ISSUE FOR FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA DUE TO AIR BELOW
THE DGZ NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH. FARTHER NORTH IT
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WHERE EVEN WITH A DRYING OF THE DGZ,
TEMPS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT
SNOW.
SNOW TOTALS WERE KEPT VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TOTALS WERE DERIVED FROM A TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM 1.25 TO 1.60
INCHES AND ADJUSTING SLRS THROUGH THE EVENT. FROM 1 AM SATURDAY
UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY A GENERAL 15-18:1 RATION WAS USED. ONCE THE
POTENTIAL OF SLEET ARRIVES, SLRS WERE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
THE COAST. IN TOTAL THIS GIVES 10-14 INCHES FOR WHERE MIXING IS
POSSIBLE AND 12 TO 16 INCHES FOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MIXING IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS WHEN LIFT IS MAXIMIZED AS STRONG MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPROACHES THE AREA. IN THE HEAVIEST
BANDING, SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.
ONCE WINDS PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING BRIEF NEAR- BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH CAN RESULT IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.
KEY MESSAGES 3
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, SURGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIKELY WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS
COMES FROM INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. A MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE
THAT WE ARE IN BETWEEN NEW AND FULL MOON PHASES SO ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS ARE LOWER.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR.
W-WNW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WNW-
NW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 21Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME. A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, 23Z-00Z.
A FEW BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT: NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT EARLY. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT, THEN MVFR OR LOWER IN DEVELOPING SNOW TOWARD
MORNING.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: IFR OR LOWER IN HEAVY SNOW. WINTRY MIX OF SLEET
AND SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING NEAR THE COAST. POTENTIAL FOR 10 TO
16 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. NE WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT,
STRONGEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. N-NW WIND GUSTS 20-
25 KT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
DUAL HAZARDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY. THE GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR MOST WATERS ENDS AT 6AM SATURDAY. NY HARBOR WILL BE A LITTLE
LESS WITH WINDS, SCA IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 6AM SATURDAY. THE
FREEZING SPRAY WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST IS WHERE WE HAVE
THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY ISSUED WITH 0.3 TO 0.8 INCH ACCUMULATION
OF ICE EXPECTED. THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2PM
SATURDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND. THE WESTERN HALF OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NY HARBOR HAVE
THEIR FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 12PM SATURDAY.
FOR SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE WITHIN SCA RANGE AND THE FREEZING SPRAY
DECREASES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH EVENTUALLY JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE WATERS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THE OTHER WATERS TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE AT THIS POINT.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 24:
KEWR: 15/1936
KBDR: 20/2014
KNYC: 6/1882
KLGA: 18/1987
KJFK: 19/1987
KISP: 19/2014
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-340-
345-350-353-355.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-350-353-355.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ332-350-353-355.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ338.
DISCUSSION...JM/JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/JT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page