716
FXUS61 KOKX 240545
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1245 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1). ARCTIC AIRMASS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR WIND CHILLS DOWN TO NEAR -10.
2.) A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. A WIDESPREAD 10 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
AND SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS EXPECTED.
3). MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE.
4.) ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TUESDAY
ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FORECAST THE
ENTIRE TIME FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DELIVER VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DECREASES ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND WILL MAKE FOR SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN TO NEAR -5 TO -10
DEGREES AT TIMES. THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL 12PM SATURDAY.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT RANGE MAINLY FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 10
DEGREES, ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE GUSTY NW
WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE PLUMMETING DOWN TO ZERO AND EVENTUALLY
SUBZERO VALUES. THE RANGE OF MINIMUM WIND CHILLS BY VERY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING RANGES FROM NEAR -5 TO NEAR -15 DEGREES. THE -15
DEGREE VALUES ARE ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WHILE THE REST OF THE
REGION IS PRETTY MUCH NEAR THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE FOR MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS.
FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR 20
DEGREES. THIS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY WINDS IN
THE MORNING DECREASE MORE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MORNING WILL STILL BE NEAR -5 TO -10 DEGREES. BY
AFTERNOON, WIND CHILLS MORE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES THAT COULD BE SET ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MAJOR WINTER STORM
IMPACTING THE AREA SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY AND A
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTH BEFORE
REDEVELOPING OFF CAPE HATTERAS, PASSING NEAR OR JUST INSIDE THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK INTO MONDAY.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH MIXING
WE WILL SEE, IF ANY, ACROSS LONG ISLAND, NYC AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NJ. THERE WERE NO MAJOR JUMPS WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE,
BUT SOME THINGS TO NOTE. THE GFS, WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND THE COLDEST, HAS CONTINUED
ITS GRADUAL NORTHWARD/WARMER TREND. ALMOST ALL OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE AS TICKED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A SINGLE SOLUTION AND
AGREEMENT IS INCREASING.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS, HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED APPROACH ON HOW FAR
MIXING CAN GET INLAND. SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING A SNOW/SLEET MIX
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LONG ISLAND, NYC AND MOST OF
NORTHEAST NJ. THIS IS DUE TO A WARM NOSE MOVING IN AROUND
700-800MB. HAVE ALSO KEPT A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
HUGGING THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRYING IN THE DGZ. THIS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE
AN ISSUE FOR FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA DUE TO AIR BELOW
THE DGZ NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH. FARTHER NORTH IT
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WHERE EVEN WITH A DRYING OF THE DGZ,
TEMPS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT
SNOW.
SNOW TOTALS WERE KEPT VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TOTALS WERE DERIVED FROM A TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM 1.25 TO 1.60
INCHES AND ADJUSTING SLRS THROUGH THE EVENT. FOR SUNDAY MORNING
A GENERAL 15-18:1 RATIO WAS USED. ONCE THE POTENTIAL OF SLEET
ARRIVES, SLRS WERE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE COAST. IN TOTAL
THIS GIVES 10-14 INCHES FOR WHERE MIXING IS POSSIBLE AND 12 TO
16 INCHES FOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
MIXING IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS WHEN LIFT IS MAXIMIZED AS STRONG MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPROACHES THE AREA. IN THE HEAVIEST
BANDING, SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES IS
EXPECTED. ONCE WINDS PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH CAN RESULT IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 3
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, SURGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LIKELY WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS
COMES FROM INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. A MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE
THAT WE ARE IN BETWEEN NEW AND FULL MOON PHASES SO ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS ARE LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 4
A VERY COLD WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ARCTIC AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. JET STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW 30 DEGREES THE ENTIRE TIME.
FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND FORECAST LOWS MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 10. MORE SUBZERO WIND CHILLS FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION WITHIN THIS TIMEFRAME DURING THE NIGHTTIME
INTO MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH SAT NIGHT, WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING
AS -SN DEVELOPS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 9Z SUN.
NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT UNTIL ABOUT 08-09Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS CLOSER
TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE GUSTS END TOWARD 18-19Z, AS DIRECTION VEERS
MORE NNW IN THE AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY DUE N LATER IN THE
EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR THROUGH ABOUT 09-10Z. THEN MVFR OR
LOWER IN DEVELOPING SNOW APPROACHING 12Z.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: VLIFR IN HEAVY SNOW. WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING NEAR THE COAST. POTENTIAL FOR 10 TO 16
INCHES OF SNOWFALL. NE WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT, STRONGEST AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. N-NW WIND GUSTS 20-
25 KT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
DUAL HAZARDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY WITH GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY. THE GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR MOST WATERS ENDS AT 6AM SATURDAY. NY HARBOR WILL BE A LITTLE
LESS WITH WINDS, SCA IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 6AM SATURDAY. THE
FREEZING SPRAY WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST IS WHERE WE HAVE
THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY ISSUED WITH 0.3 TO 0.8 INCH ACCUMULATION
OF ICE EXPECTED. THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2PM
SATURDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND. THE WESTERN HALF OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NY HARBOR HAVE
THEIR FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 12PM SATURDAY.
FOR SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE WITHIN SCA RANGE AND THE FREEZING SPRAY
DECREASES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH EVENTUALLY JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE WATERS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THE OTHER WATERS TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE AT THIS POINT.
FOR EARLY INTO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK, SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WATERS MUCH OF THE TIME. FOR A
PART OF THIS TIME, ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 24:
KEWR: 15/1936
KBDR: 20/2014
KNYC: 6/1882
KLGA: 18/1987
KJFK: 19/1987
KISP: 19/2014
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-345-350-353-355.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ331-332-350-353-355.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ332-350-353-355.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ335-338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ338.
DISCUSSION...JM/JT
AVIATION...JE/DR
MARINE...JM/JT
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