940
FXUS61 KOKX 240856
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING MAJOR
WINTER STORM AND PROLONGED COLD CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. A WIDESPREAD 10 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
AND SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS EXPECTED.
2). ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WIND CHILLS DOWN
TO NEAR -10 THROUGH NOON.
3). MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY MONDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
ARCTIC AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF A SPRAWLING
1048 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WINTER STORM
MATERIALIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH AND BE FORCED TO TRACK
AROUND THE DEEP COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT, WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT TAKING
PLACE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE LONG ISLAND
COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND
THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL MIXING WITH SLEET FOR THE
SOUTHERN/COASTAL PORTION OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE KEY PIECES WITH THE
WINTER STORM, BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT AND
TIMING OF A WARM NOSE AROUND 750 MB. GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF
PARTIAL THICKNESSES FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, NAM, AND RGEM SUNDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED ON ANY POTENTIAL
WINTRY MIX OCCURRING AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z MONDAY. THE NAM
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND QUICKEST WITH THE WARM NOSE (SOMETIME
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON) AND WANTED TO AT LEAST BLEND ITS
THICKNESSES IN CASE THE WARM NOSE COMES IN A BIT FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED, WHICH HAS HAPPENED IN PAST EVENTS.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE REGION LIES UNDERNEATH AN INTENSE POLAR
JET STREAK LIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE SNOW WILL FALL
INTO ARCTIC AIR WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS. THIS IS A BIT UNUSUAL FOR THE AREA AS MOST SNOW
EVENTS OVER THE TRI-STATE OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OR
LOW 30S. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY ACCUMULATE AS THE INTENSITY
PICKS UP THROUGH THE MORNING. MID LEVEL THERMAL FORCING WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS IMPRESSIVE AND THE OVERALL DEEP
LAYER OF VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER THE AREA STRONGLY SUPPORT
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 20S.
AS THE WARMING IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS CONTINUES, THE CHANCE FOR A
MIX WITH SLEET NEAR THE COAST INCREASE SOMETIME LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IT NEEDS TO BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE
OVERALL IMPACTS WILL NOT CHANGE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL OCCUR
BEFORE ANY WINTRY MIX. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD BACK THE WARM NOSE JUST
ENOUGH OR CREATE AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER ON THE 0C ISOTHERM TO
PROLONG HEAVY SNOW FOR EVEN JUST AN HOUR TWO. THE 00Z HREF
INDICATED SEVERAL HOURS OF OVER A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GREATER
THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES, AND EVEN HAS A FEW HOURS OVER 80
PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES PER HOUR ON
THE HREF IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RANGES FROM 20 TO 40
PERCENT.
THE GUIDANCE ALSO OFFERS IMPRESSIVE QPF VALUES BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH
LIQUID, GIVING MORE CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE HEAVY SNOWFALL
OVER THE AREA.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HEAVIEST
BANDS WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE BEING
LIFTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR.
THE STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LIFTS NORTHEAST BETWEEN
00-06Z MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO GRADUALLY REDUCE PRECIP
RATES. THERE MAY ALSO BE DRYING ALOFT, WHICH WILL START TO
REDUCE SNOWFALL RATES WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW. THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, POTENTIALLY
MIXED WITH SNOW IF THE WARM NOSE IS NOT AS DEEP. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE AS
THE DRYING ALOFT OCCURS, CUTTING OFF SNOW GROWTH ALONG WITH THE
THINNING OF THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THIS MAY ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW PRESSURE ENDS UP TO LONG
ISLAND. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELING KEEPS THE LOW JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND, BUT IF IT WERE TO END UP CLOSER TO THE
SHORE, SOME PARTS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND COULD BRIEFLY RISE
ABOVE FREEZING WITH LIGHT PLAIN RAIN BRIEFLY POSSIBLE.
THE SYSTEM STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY RETURN AS THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE THERMAL PROFILES BECOME
COLDER HEADING INTO MONDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS POTENTIAL ANYTHING
THAT FALLS MAY JUST BE FLURRIES.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST RANGING FROM AROUND 10 INCHES NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND
16 INCHES WELL INLAND. THE POTENTIAL OF SLEET IS INCLUDED IN
THESE TOTALS FOR AREAS THAT MAY SEE A MIX OR A FULL CHANGEOVER.
SLRS ARE TRICKY WITH THIS EVENT AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SUPPORTS
A HIGHER RATIO (AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 15:1), ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE EVENT. THE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND WARMER AIR IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS WILL LIKELY LOWER RATIOS TO 12-14:1 AND WILL DROP
FURTHER WITH ANY MIXING IN THE EVENING TOWARDS THE COAST.
AS NOTED ABOVE, SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND
COULD CREATE NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS/NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. A MIX OR CHANGE TO
SLEET WILL REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL AS VISIBILITIES WOULD NOT BE AS
LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR
WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND -10. HIGHS TODAY WILL LARGELY REMAIN
IN THE TEENS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURES THAT COULD BE SET ON SATURDAY.
OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 32 SUNDAY
EVENING NEAR THE COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
WINTER STORM AFTER MONDAY WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE
20 DEGREES. ONLY SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
10 DEGREES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE NIGHTS/EARLY
MORNINGS WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -5 TO -10 TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY INTO MONDAY, ENE TO NE WINDS
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PILE AND ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ENOUGH TO EXCEED
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GREATEST CHANCE FOR OCCURRENCE OF
THIS IS ALONG THE MORE VULNERABLE SHORELINES OF THE GREAT SOUTH BAY,
LI BACK BAYS, WESTERN LI SOUND, AND PORTIONS OF THE NY HARBOR. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
THIS APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED THREAT, WITH WATER
LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW FLOOD THRESHOLDS IN SUBSEQUENT TIDAL
CYCLES. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR FROM MORE SIGNIFICANT OR PROLONGED
FLOODING IS THAT WATER LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW ASTRONOMICALLY,
SITTING BETWEEN NEW AND FULL MOON PHASES.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT, DECLINING TO SUB VFR AS -SN DEVELOPS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 9Z SUN.
A GENERAL NW FLOW NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT PERSISTS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS MAY BE MORE
OCCASIONAL AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GUSTS END TOWARD
18-19Z, AS DIRECTION VEERS MORE NNW IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
EVENTUALLY DUE N LATER IN THE EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUST CESSATION MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING FOR DECLINING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR THROUGH ABOUT 09-10Z. THEN MVFR OR
LOWER IN DEVELOPING SNOW APPROACHING 12Z.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: VLIFR IN HEAVY SNOW. WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING NEAR THE COAST. POTENTIAL FOR 10 TO 16
INCHES OF SNOWFALL. NE WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT, STRONGEST AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. N-NW WIND GUSTS 20-
25 KT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HAVE CONVERTED ALL GALE WARNINGS THIS MORNING TO SCA AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SCA WILL RUN A LITTLE
LONGER ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FT. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN
LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL OF GALES ON THE OCEAN
MONDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 24:
KEWR: 15/1936
KBDR: 20/2014
KNYC: 6/1882
KLGA: 18/1987
KJFK: 19/1987
KISP: 19/2014
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ331-332-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ335-338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...DR/DS
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page