252
FXUS61 KOKX 250557
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1257 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF SLEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS.
AS SUCH, HAVE DECREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS TREND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. A WIDESPREAD 9 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS EXPECTED.
2) ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
3) MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS LIKELY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON AM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY MONDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
ARCTIC AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF A SPRAWLING 1042 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WINTER STORM
MATERIALIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH AND BE FORCED TO TRACK
AROUND THE DEEP COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT, WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS THE LONG ISLAND COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE REGION LIES UNDERNEATH AN INTENSE POLAR JET STREAK
LIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE SNOW WILL FALL INTO ARCTIC AIR
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS IS A
BIT UNUSUAL FOR THE AREA AS MOST SNOW EVENTS OVER THE TRI-STATE
OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OR LOW 30S. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY
ACCUMULATE AS THE INTENSITY PICKS UP THROUGH THE MORNING. MID LEVEL
THERMAL FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS IMPRESSIVE AND THE
OVERALL DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER THE AREA STRONGLY
SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 20S.
AS THE WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES, THE CHANCE FOR A MIX
WITH SLEET NEAR THE COAST INCREASE SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE A STRONGER WARM LAYER WITH THE
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT BEING A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR THE MIX OF SLEET TO BE A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, BEGINNING FIRST AS MAINLY SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET AS EARLY
AS 1-3 PM BUT BECOMING MORE OF A PRIMARY PERIOD OF SLEET THEREAFTER
ALONG THE COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT NEEDS TO BE EMPHASIZED THAT
THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL NOT CHANGE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL OCCUR
BEFORE ANY WINTRY MIX. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD BACK THE WARM NOSE JUST ENOUGH OR CREATE
AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER ON THE 0C ISOTHERM TO PROLONG HEAVY SNOW FOR
EVEN JUST AN HOUR TWO. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-
2" PER HOUR (OR POSSIBLY HIGHER), EVEN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF MAINLY
SNOW RATHER THAN SLEET CAN RESULT IN A 2-5" DIFFERENCE IN SNOW
ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION TO SLEET. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS WITH THE
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE BEING LIFTED OVER THE
LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR.
THE STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LIFTS NORTHEAST BETWEEN 00-06Z
MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO GRADUALLY REDUCE PRECIP RATES. THERE
MAY ALSO BE DRYING ALOFT, WHICH WILL START TO REDUCE SNOWFALL RATES
WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IF THE WARM NOSE
IS NOT AS DEEP. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN,
MAINLY FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE NYC METRO AS THE DRYING ALOFT OCCURS,
CUTTING OFF SNOW GROWTH ALONG WITH THE THINNING OF THE DEPTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THIS MAY ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW
PRESSURE ENDS UP TO LONG ISLAND. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELING KEEPS
THE LOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND, BUT IF IT WERE TO END UP
CLOSER TO THE SHORE, SOME PARTS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND COULD BRIEFLY
RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH LIGHT PLAIN RAIN BRIEFLY POSSIBLE.
THE SYSTEM STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY RETURN AS THE TRAILING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE THERMAL PROFILES BECOME COLDER
HEADING INTO MONDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS POTENTIAL ANYTHING THAT FALLS MAY JUST
BE FLURRIES.
OVERALL, SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD, MAINLY FOR
THE COAST WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND AN EARLIER TIMING
OF THE MIXING CUTTING DOWN A BIT ON TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. LONG ISLAND,
THE NYC METRO, AND NE NJ ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 8-12" TOTAL, BUT THIS
MAY BE IN THE FORM OF 6-9" OF SNOW AND 1-2" OF SLEET. FOR MORE
INLAND AREAS, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12-15" ARE EXPECTED CONSISTING
OF PRIMARILY SNOW WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLEET.
AS NOTED ABOVE, SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND COULD CREATE
NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS/NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT. A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET WILL REDUCE THIS
POTENTIAL AS VISIBILITIES WOULD NOT BE AS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE WINTER STORM AFTER MONDAY
WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE 20 DEGREES. ONLY SOME SLIGHT
MODERATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND
0 TO AROUND -10 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ENE
TO NE WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ENOUGH TO
JUST ABOVE THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHORE OF NASSAU COUNTY, EASTERN BAYS OF LI (PARTICULARLY N/NE FACING
SHORES), AND ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
3 TO 5 FT BREAKING WAVE ACTIONS ALONG N/NE FACING COASTS ALONG W LI
SOUND AND GARDINER'S BAY WILL LOCALLY EXACERBATE SHORELINE EROSION
AND FLOODING.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
MINOR BEACH FLOODING ISSUES ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OCEANFRONT FROM 4-
6FT BREAKING WAVES WITH AN EAST TO WEST SWEEP. LOW PROBABILITY OF
DUNE EROSION.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NORTH OF THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES JUST OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY.
VFR TO START THE NIGHT, BECOMING IFR OR LOWER BY LATE MORNING,
WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SNOW DEVELOPS AFTER 9Z THIS MORNING, INTENSIFIES DURING THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR, LIFR AND VLIFR WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MIXES WITH SLEET AND
CHANGES TO A WINTRY MIX AFTER 21Z FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. SLEET
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE THE STEADIEST TAPERS.
N WINDS VEER NE INTO THE MORNING, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING, WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING.
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION THRU 00Z MONDAY:
NYC METRO TERMINALS: 8 TO 10 INCHES
KHPN: 10 TO 12 INCHES
KSWF: 10 TO 12 INCHES
CT TERMINALS: 8 TO 10 INCHES
KISP: 8 TO 10 INCHES
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANGING CATEGORIES.
TIMING OF PTYPE CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH WINTRY
MIX (MOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET) LESSENING IN INTENSITY. AT TIMES,
PRECIP TYPE COULD JUST BE PLAIN SLEET. MAINLY SNOW FOR KSWF.
FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. NW WIND GUSTS
20-30 KT.
MONDAY: MVFR TO IFR WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25
KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT, SUBSIDING AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A BRIEF LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN, GREAT SOUTH BAY
AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ALL
THE REMAINING WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL OF
GALES ON THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL
OF GALES ON THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SUB-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 24:
KEWR: 15/1936
KBDR: 20/2014
KNYC: 6/1882
KLGA: 18/1987
KJFK: 19/1987
KISP: 19/2014
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ331-
335-338-340.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ332-345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JC/NV/MW
AVIATION...JM/DR
MARINE...JC/MW
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