352
FXUS61 KOKX 250701
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED SNOW/SLEET TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NYC
METRO, NE NJ, AND LONG ISLAND DUE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO
SLEET LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN MOVED UP TO
1PM MONDAY AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE DEPARTING STORM
SHOULD BE ENDING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MAJOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED. A
WIDESPREAD 8 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
2) ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
3) MINOR COASTAL AND BEACH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG SOME
OF THE SHORELINE AND OCEANFRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN MATERIALIZING THIS MORNING AS
DEEP MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OFF TO THE WEST, BUT
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO SATURATE.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN REACHING THE SURFACE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 5 TO 9 AM. THE INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY
AS THE SNOW FALLS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS, WHICH
IS QUITE UNUSUAL FOR THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COASTAL AREAS RISING INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY MID TO LATE MORNING AS
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES AND BECOMES COUPLED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING POLAR JET STREAK OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID LEVEL THERMAL FORCING PEAKS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH IMPRESSIVE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND AN
OVERALL DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL VELOCITIES. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD
OF AN INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE
LATEST HREF CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES (60-90 PERCENT)
FOR RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH
4PM NEAR THE COAST. THESE HIGH PROBABILITIES WILL SHIFT NORTH IN
THE EVENING AND ACTUALLY ARE 90-100 PERCENT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY FOR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
PER HOUR ALONG THE COAST, WITH THE PROBABILITY INCREASING
INLAND AS THE BAND SHIFTS NORTH.
THE INTENSE BAND OF SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING
AROUND 750 MB. THE MODELING HAS LARGELY COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF MIXING WITH SLEET AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGING TO ALL SLEET FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BLENDING THE GUIDANCE GIVES AN APPROXIMATE TIME AROUND 3 PM WITH
POTENTIAL SLEET MIXING IN THE NYC METRO AND THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS LONG ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM.
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST AND COULD CREATE NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS/NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT. A
MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET WILL REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL AS
VISIBILITIES WOULD NOT BE AS LOW.
IT NEEDS TO BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL NOT
CHANGE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIX WITH SLEET.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE ABLE TO
HOLD BACK THE WARM NOSE JUST ENOUGH OR CREATE AN ISOTHERMAL
LAYER ON THE 0C ISOTHERM TO PROLONG HEAVY SNOW FOR EVEN JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"
PER HOUR (OR POSSIBLY HIGHER), EVEN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MAINLY SNOW RATHER THAN SLEET CAN RESULT IN A 2-4" DIFFERENCE
IN SNOW ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION TO SLEET.
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HEAVIEST BANDS WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE BEING LIFTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR.
THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE THIS EVENING ACROSS NE NJ, NYC METRO, AND
LONG ISLAND WILL BE SLEET, WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
SLEET WILL ACCUMULATE, BUT AT A MUCH SLOWER RATE THAN SNOW.
DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES IN LATE EVENING, WHICH WILL
INTRODUCE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT, HEAVY SNOW PERSISTS BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN IN
INTENSITY. LOSS OF SNOW GROWTH AND POTENTIAL WARMING ALOFT
EXTENDING INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX AS THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ, NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE. SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM 8-12", BUT THIS
MAY BE IN THE FORM OF 6-9" OF SNOW AND 1-2" OF SLEET. FOR MORE
INLAND AREAS, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15" ARE EXPECTED
CONSISTING OF PRIMARILY SNOW.
THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THINS THIS EVENING AS THE
SECONDARY LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT A FEW PLACES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF LONG
ISLAND COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THIS
WARMING A LITTLE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDING ACROSS MORE
OF LONG ISLAND AND POTENTIALLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CITY.
DID NOT GO THIS AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME AS THE OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND THE TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR LOWER PROBABILITIES. WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, HAVE PUSHED UP THE END TIME OF THE WARNING
UNTIL 1 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE WINTER STORM LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHTLY WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 20
DEGREES. ONLY SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS
WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND 0 TO AROUND -10 MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, NE WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ENOUGH TO APPROACH OR
JUST EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF NASSAU
COUNTY, ALONG THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
BAYS OF LI (PARTICULARLY N/NE FACING SHORES). A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
IN ADDITION, MINOR BEACH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT FROM 4 TO 6 FT BREAKING WAVES WITH AN EAST TO WEST SWEEP,
THOUGH THE RISK FOR DUNE EROSION IS LOW. ALONG N/NE FACING COASTS OF
THE W LI SOUND AND GARDINER'S BAY, 3 TO 5 FT BREAKING WAVES WILL
LOCALLY EXACERBATE SHORELINE EROSION AND FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NORTH OF THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW
PASSES JUST OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY.
VFR TO START THE NIGHT, BECOMING IFR OR LOWER BY LATE MORNING,
WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SNOW DEVELOPS AFTER 9Z THIS MORNING, INTENSIFIES DURING THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR, LIFR AND VLIFR WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MIXES WITH SLEET AND
CHANGES TO A WINTRY MIX AFTER 21Z FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. SLEET
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE THE STEADIEST TAPERS.
N WINDS VEER NE INTO THE MORNING, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING, WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING.
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION THRU 00Z MONDAY:
NYC METRO TERMINALS: 8 TO 10 INCHES
KHPN: 10 TO 12 INCHES
KSWF: 10 TO 12 INCHES
CT TERMINALS: 8 TO 10 INCHES
KISP: 8 TO 10 INCHES
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANGING CATEGORIES.
TIMING OF PTYPE CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH WINTRY
MIX (MOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET) LESSENING IN INTENSITY. AT TIMES,
PRECIP TYPE COULD JUST BE PLAIN SLEET. MAINLY SNOW FOR KSWF.
FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. NW WIND GUSTS
20-30 KT.
MONDAY: MVFR TO IFR WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25
KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT, SUBSIDING AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN, GREAT SOUTH BAY AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND. HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WEAKEN ON MONDAY ON THE WATERS, BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. SCA WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL OF GALES ON THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
MAY FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ331-
335-338-340.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ332-345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DR/DS
AVIATION...JM/DR
MARINE...DS
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