956
FXUS61 KOKX 251726
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1226 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BROUGHT SLEET IN A LITTLE SOONER ACROSS THE GREATER NYC METRO
AREA AND NE NJ BASED ON OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS.
ADJUSTED SNOW/SLEET TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NYC
METRO, NE NJ, AND LONG ISLAND DUE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO
SLEET LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE END TIME OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO 1
PM MONDAY AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SHOULD
BE ENDING BEFORE THEN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS NOW UNDERWAY. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL SNOW/SLEET
AMOUNTS OF 8-15 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
2) ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
3) MINOR COASTAL AND BEACH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG
SOME OF THE SHORELINE AND OCEANFRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WINTER STORM UNDERWAY AS DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT OVERRUNS LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIR, WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE AREA
AND EXTENDING BACK INTO MOST OF NJ VIA STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
DEPARTING POLAR JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
SNOWFALL RATES ALREADY 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR IN SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AS OF 15Z WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING 10-15 WELL INLAND,
15-20 JUST IN FROM NYC AND THE COAST, THE LOWER/MID 20S ACROSS
MOST OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND, AND THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE AND EAST END OF SUFFOLK.
MID LEVEL THERMAL FORCING PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPRESSIVE
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND AN OVERALL DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL
VELOCITIES. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF AN INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE
PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE 00Z HREF SHOWED HIGH PROBABILITIES
(60-90 PERCENT) FOR RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR FROM AROUND
NOON THROUGH 4 PM NEAR THE COAST. THESE HIGH PROBABILITIES WILL
SHIFT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AND ACTUALLY
ARE 90-100 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS ALSO A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR ALONG THE COAST,
WITH THE PROBABILITY INCREASING INLAND AS THE BAND SHIFTS NORTH.
THE INTENSE BAND OF SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING
AROUND 750 MB. THE MODELING HAS LARGELY COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF MIXING WITH SLEET AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGING TO ALL SLEET FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BLENDING THE GUIDANCE GIVES AN APPROXIMATE TIME AROUND 3 PM WITH
POTENTIAL SLEET MIXING IN THE NYC METRO AND THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS LONG ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST AND COULD CREATE NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS/NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT.
A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET WILL REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL AS
VISIBILITIES WOULD NOT BE AS LOW.
IT NEEDS TO BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL NOT
CHANGE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIX WITH SLEET.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE ABLE TO
HOLD BACK THE WARM NOSE JUST ENOUGH OR CREATE AN ISOTHERMAL
LAYER ON THE 0C ISOTHERM TO PROLONG HEAVY SNOW FOR EVEN JUST AN
HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR (OR POSSIBLY HIGHER), EVEN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO
OF MAINLY SNOW RATHER THAN SLEET CAN RESULT IN A 2-4 INCH
DIFFERENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION TO
SLEET. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND
DEEP MOISTURE BEING LIFTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR.
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THIS EVENING ACROSS NE NJ, NYC METRO,
AND LONG ISLAND WILL BE SLEET, WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
THE SLEET WILL ACCUMULATE, BUT AT A MUCH SLOWER RATE THAN SNOW.
DRYING ALOFT GRADUALLY MOVES IN LATE EVENING, WHICH WILL
INTRODUCE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT, HEAVY SNOW PERSISTS BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN IN
INTENSITY. LOSS OF SNOW GROWTH AND POTENTIAL WARMING ALOFT
EXTENDING INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX AS THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NE NJ, NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE. SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM 8-12", BUT THIS
MAY BE IN THE FORM OF 6-9" OF SNOW AND 1-2" OF SLEET. FOR MORE
INLAND AREAS, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15" ARE EXPECTED
CONSISTING OF PRIMARILY SNOW.
THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THINS THIS EVENING AS THE
SECONDARY LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT A FEW PLACES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF LONG
ISLAND COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THIS
WARMING A LITTLE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDING ACROSS MORE
OF LONG ISLAND AND POTENTIALLY INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CITY.
DID NOT GO THIS AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME AS THE OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND THE TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR LOWER PROBABILITIES. WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, HAVE PUSHED UP THE END TIME OF THE WARNING
UNTIL 1 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE WINTER STORM LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHTLY WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 20
DEGREES. ONLY SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS
WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND 0 TO AROUND -10 MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, NE WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ENOUGH TO APPROACH OR
JUST EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF NASSAU
COUNTY, ALONG THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
BAYS OF LI (PARTICULARLY N/NE FACING SHORES). A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
IN ADDITION, MINOR BEACH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT FROM 4 TO 6 FT BREAKING WAVES WITH AN EAST TO WEST SWEEP,
THOUGH THE RISK FOR DUNE EROSION IS LOW. ALONG N/NE FACING COASTS OF
THE W LI SOUND AND GARDINER'S BAY, 3 TO 5 FT BREAKING WAVES WILL
LOCALLY EXACERBATE SHORELINE EROSION AND FLOODING.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING
WITH PERHAPS SUBTLE IMPROVEMENTS TO IFR LATE TONIGHT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH VFR
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MIXES WITH SLEET AND CHANGES TO A WINTRY
MIX AFTER 21Z FOR COASTAL TERMINALS, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY AT
INLAND TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE
STEADIEST TAPERS. RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KSWF.
N/NE WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. THE GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AM, THEN RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DIRECTION BACKS TO THE NW.
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION THRU 06Z MONDAY:
NYC METRO TERMINALS: 8 TO 10 INCHES
KHPN: 10 TO 12 INCHES
KSWF: 10 TO 12 INCHES
CT TERMINALS: 8 TO 10 INCHES
KISP: 8 TO 10 INCHES
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
TIMING OF PTYPE CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY: MVFR TO IFR WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW, IMPROVING IN THE
AFTERNOON TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT, SUBSIDING AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN, GREAT SOUTH BAY AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND. HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WEAKEN ON MONDAY ON THE WATERS, BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. SCA WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL OF GALES ON THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
MAY FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ331-335-338-
340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ332-345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DR/DS
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DS
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