940
FXUS61 KOKX 260042
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL SNOW/SLEET
AMOUNTS OF 9-12 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NYC METRO AREA AND
LONG ISLAND, WITH 12-18 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
2) MINOR COASTAL AND BEACH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG
SOME OF THE SHORELINE AND OCEANFRONT LATE TONIGHT.
3) ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WINTER STORM UNDERWAY AS DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT OVERRUNS LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIR, WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE AREA.
WAA ALOFT HAS BROUGHT WARMER AIR INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND
PARTS OF LONG ISLAND AS EXPECTED, WITH PRECIP MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET. THE TRANSITION TO SLEET SHOULD WORK
ITS WAY UP INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
ORANGE/PUTNAM, AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO AN INCH ON TOP OF
SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN SHOULD TAKE PLACE MAINLY ACROSS NE
NJ, NYC AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER, LONG ISLAND, AND COASTAL CT,
WITH LESSER AMTS INLAND. THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
THINS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
LONG ISLAND, WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING FURTHER TO FREEZING RAIN
IN THE ABOVE AREAS, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ICE
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER BOROUGHS OF NYC ACROSS TO
LONG ISLAND, AND LESSER AMTS TO THE NORTH. AS THE MID LEVELS DRY
OUT, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY EVEN BE
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND LATE TONIGHT.
TOTAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 9-12 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF NE NJ, NYC, AND LONG ISLAND, TO 12-18 INCHES
NORTH OF THERE, HIGHEST ACROSS ORANGE/PUTNAM WHERE THE LEAST AMT
OF MIXING WILL BE TAKING PLACE. THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL NOT
CHANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OCCURRING BEFORE THE
MIX/CHANGE WITH SLEET.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AS OF 19Z WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND,
MID/UPPER 20S MOST ELSEWHERE, AND TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE AND EAST END OF LONG ISLAND.
ANY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND THE TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR LOWER PROBABILITIES. THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES
UNTIL 1 PM, BUT COULD BE CANCELLED OR REPLACED WITH AN ADVISORY
DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY, NE WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ELEVATE WATER
LEVELS ENOUGH TO APPROACH OR JUST EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS DURING HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE
OF NASSAU, IN JAMAICA BAY, SOME OF THE TIDAL WATERWAYS OF NE NJ,
ALONG THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, AND ALSO THE EASTERN BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND, PARTICULARLY N-E FACING SHORES.
MINOR BEACH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT FROM 4 TO 6 FT BREAKING WAVES WITH AN E-W SWEEP,
THOUGH THE RISK FOR DUNE EROSION IS LOW. ALONG N-E FACING COASTS
OF THE SOUND AND GARDINER'S BAY, BREAKING WAVES OF 3-5 FT COULD
LOCALLY EXACERBATE SHORELINE EROSION AND FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE WINTER STORM LATE
MONDAY, CONTINUING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE RANGE
OF 20-25 THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND AROUND 10 ABOVE FOR COASTAL AREAS. WIND
CHILLS EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
PARTICULARLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY EARLY
MONDAY AND THEN WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE ON MONDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. KISP AND KNYC HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
DEVELOP. ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
EITHER SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
CATEGORIES VARY FROM MVFR TO VLIFR THIS EVENING. MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE VFR RETURNS TOWARDS END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
REGARDING WINDS, THEY WILL BE MAINLY NE NEAR 10-20 KT WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20-30 KT. WINDS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND DECREASE IN
SPEED, EVENTUALLY TO NEAR 10 KT WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING. WINDS
BECOME MORE NW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT, PARTICULARLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
FOR SNOW/SLEET FORECASTS FOR THE TERMINALS, ADDITIONAL SNOW AND
SLEET IS EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO NEAR AN INCH OR LESS WITH
EXCEPTION OF KSWF WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET OF NEAR 2 TO 3
INCHES IS FORECAST. ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS OF NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS FORECAST.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SOME W-NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT, SUBSIDING AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE WARNING TO ALL WATERS BY NY HARBOR FOR
LATE TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH, WITH E-NE FLOW GUSTING UP TO 40 KT.
NE WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS
REMAINING ON THE OCEAN AND THE FAR ERN SOUND BY MON MORNING.
W-NW WINDS THAN PICK UP LATE MON AFTERNOON, WITH PRIMARILY SCA
CONDS ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT, HOWEVER GUSTS
COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH GALE FORCE MON NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
SCA CONDS LAST ON THE OCEAN FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THU MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS THEN INCREASE THU NIGHT INTO FRI, WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO ALL WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-340-345-
350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ340.
DISCUSSION...JC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN
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