173
FXUS61 KOKX 260557
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1257 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL AS ICE
ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL AS ICE
ACCUMULATION.
2) MINOR COASTAL AND BEACH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG
SOME OF THE SHORELINE AND OCEANFRONT LATE TONIGHT.
3) ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
PRECIP IN GENERAL LIKELY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN CHANCES
LOWER TO 40-50% THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING COMMUTE, THEN LIKELY DRY BY NOONTIME MONDAY.
PRECIP TYPE OF MAINLY SNOW INLAND, SNOW/SLEET COASTAL SECTIONS.
FREEZING RAIN STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LI AND
TWIN FORKS AREA AND MAYBE THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
CITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING FOR FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
OVERALL. ONCE THE STEADIER PRECIP EXITS LATER THIS EVENING,
PRECIP TYPES OF LIGHT SNOW OR POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
THE MID LAYERS DRY OUT. IT'S STILL SO COLD IN THE LOWER LEVELS,
THAT LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS CAN STILL FALL ACROSS THE CWA.
ANYTHING THAT FALLS MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW.
TOTAL SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS OF 12-18 INCHES FOR THE MOST AREAS
NORTH OF NYC. 9-14 INCHES ELSEWHERE. ICE ACCRETION UP TO AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH.
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. EVEN WHEN THE STEADY
PRECIP ENDS LATER TONIGHT, HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE
LEFT IN ITS WAKE LIKELY THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY, NE WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ELEVATE WATER
LEVELS ENOUGH TO APPROACH OR JUST EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS DURING HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE
OF NASSAU, IN JAMAICA BAY, SOME OF THE TIDAL WATERWAYS OF NE NJ,
ALONG THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, AND ALSO THE EASTERN BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND, PARTICULARLY N-E FACING SHORES.
MINOR BEACH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT FROM 4 TO 6 FT BREAKING WAVES WITH AN E-W SWEEP,
THOUGH THE RISK FOR DUNE EROSION IS LOW. ALONG N-E FACING COASTS
OF THE SOUND AND GARDINER'S BAY, BREAKING WAVES OF 3-5 FT COULD
LOCALLY EXACERBATE SHORELINE EROSION AND FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE WINTER STORM LATE
MONDAY, CONTINUING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE RANGE
OF 20-25 THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND AROUND 10 ABOVE FOR COASTAL AREAS. WIND
CHILLS EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
PARTICULARLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, EXITING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
IN LOCALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING, BUT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR MIST CONTINUE INTO EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS
START TO DRY OUT MORE NOTABLY TOWARD 12Z MON, WITH LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLY LINGERING AT KSWF INTO THE DAY.
SUB VFR INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY IFR INTO THE MORNING, THEN
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE VFR RETURNS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AS LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
NE TO N WINDS NEAR 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KT EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN SPEED, EVENTUALLY TO NEAR 10 KT WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME MORE NW MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT, PARTICULARLY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CATEGORIES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SOME W-NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT, SUBSIDING AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
MARINE
HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE WARNING TO ALL WATERS BY NY HARBOR FOR
LATE TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH, WITH E-NE FLOW GUSTING UP TO 40 KT.
NE WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS
REMAINING ON THE OCEAN AND THE FAR ERN SOUND BY MON MORNING.
W-NW WINDS THAN PICK UP LATE MON AFTERNOON, WITH PRIMARILY SCA
CONDS ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT, HOWEVER GUSTS
COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH GALE FORCE MON NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
SCA CONDS LAST ON THE OCEAN FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THU MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS THEN INCREASE THU NIGHT INTO FRI, WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO ALL WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ331-332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JM/DR
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN
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