085
FXUS61 KOKX 260916
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WHICH WILL MEAN MINIMAL ICE AND
SNOW MELT.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK WHICH
WILL RIVAL OR EXCEED THE MOST RECENT BOUT OF COLD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED WITH AN
SPS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING FOR LINGERING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO ICY ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS. VERY LITTLE SNOW MELT
IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES TODAY MODERATE SOME, BUT SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST WIND CHILLS TODAY
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS.
COLD AIR REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS AND WIND CHILLS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MORE WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
SOME LATE. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE NEXT WAVE OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK IN A SERIES OF COLD REINFORCEMENTS. THIS NEXT WAVE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND WILL
REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES START TO
MODERATE A BIT INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, EXITING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN LOCALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE STEADIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED, BUT POCKETS OF
LIGHT SNOW, FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND MIST CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
MAINTAINED A TEMPO FOR THESE TERMINALS THRU 12Z. CONDITIONS
START TO DRY OUT MORE NOTABLY AROUND THIS TIME, WITH LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLY LINGERING AT KSWF INTO THE DAY.
GENERALLY REMAINING SUB VFR INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AM, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY INCREASING
AND RETURNING TO VFR INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
NE TO N WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH MOST GUSTS HAVING ENDED, OR WILL
SOON BEFORE DAYBREAK. WINDS BACK MORE NW INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
SPEEDS INCREASE TOWARD 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
REDEVELOPING, PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH CHANGING CATEGORIES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF VFR IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SOME W-NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT, SUBSIDING AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE OCEAN WITH
ELEVATED SEAS TO BEGIN THE WEEK. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND POTENTIALLY INTO A PORTION OF TUESDAY EVENING.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN
ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ331-332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE
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