643
FXUS61 KOKX 261822
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
122 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY.
2) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
3) POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL COASTAL STORM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA ON TUE. NBM POPS
WERE DRY, BUT WITH THE DENDRITIC ZONE ALMOST DOWN TO THE SFC,
AND HIGH RH IN THE TIME HEIGHTS AROUND 1500FT WITH A SWLY FLOW
ALOFT, WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHWRS IN THE
AFTN. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FCST, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAMPING UP TO SHSN SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN A BIT MORE INTENSITY
INCREASE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE SHAPING UP TO BE COLDEST FROM THE
MID-WEEK TO WEEKEND PERIOD. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE FOR
TUE NGT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE. IN ADDITION,
ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL IF TRENDS HOLD. WIND CHILLS
THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST NEAR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BOTH NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING
OFF THE POLAR VORTEX AND SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE LIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WOULD THEN HELP
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING
SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THE STORM AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST, PERHAPS
APPROACHING THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT SOME POINT SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
DID NOT DEVIATE FROM NBM POPS (20-30%) FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE AND CERTAINLY WITH ANY DETAILS OF THE STORM THIS MANY
DAYS AWAY. WITH THAT SAID, NBM SHOWS A 20-30% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 6
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE EVENT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
AT LEAST MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE START OF THE EVENT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
N WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING BACKS MORE NW INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND SPEEDS INCREASE TOWARD 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING (KGON LATEST).
GUSTS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WNW INTO TUESDAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH TIMING OF CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
ONSET OF GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF EITHER MAY BE OFF 1-2
HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SOME W-NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT, SUBSIDING AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
MARINE
A GALE WRNG HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE OCEAN FOR TNGT. ELSEWHERE, A
SCA REMAINS IN PLACE. A SCA WILL THEN BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN
THRU TUE NGT, AND MAY BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE WITH WINDS CLOSE TO
CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS ON WED. IN
ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND WAVES, LGT FREEZING SPRAY CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AT TIMES THRU TUE NGT.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, THIS MAY INCLUDE SATURDAY AS WELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JMC/JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JC
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