961
FXUS61 KOKX 270022
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CT
AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CT AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
2) CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY.
3) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
4) POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL COASTAL STORM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
POPS INCREASED FOR SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND SUFFOLK COUNTY NY. THE COVERAGE IS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AND A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. VISIBILITIES
LOCALLY REDUCED TO A FEW MILES WITHIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA ON TUE. NBM POPS
WERE DRY, BUT WITH THE DENDRITIC ZONE ALMOST DOWN TO THE SFC,
AND HIGH RH IN THE TIME HEIGHTS AROUND 1500FT WITH A SWLY FLOW
ALOFT, WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHWRS IN THE
AFTN. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FCST, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAMPING UP TO SHSN SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN A BIT MORE INTENSITY
INCREASE.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE SHAPING UP TO BE COLDEST FROM THE
MID-WEEK TO WEEKEND PERIOD. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
FOR TUE NGT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE. IN
ADDITION, ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL IF TRENDS HOLD.
WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST NEAR
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BOTH NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 4
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY
BREAKING OFF THE POLAR VORTEX AND SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
WOULD THEN HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST DURING SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THE STORM AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST, PERHAPS APPROACHING THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
DID NOT DEVIATE FROM NBM POPS (20-30%) FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE AND CERTAINLY WITH ANY DETAILS OF THE STORM THIS MANY
DAYS AWAY. WITH THAT SAID, NBM SHOWS A 20-30% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 6
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE EVENT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
AT LEAST MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE START OF THE EVENT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN, ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS TRAVERSING CT TERMINALS AND KISP EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW, UP TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH SNOW SHOWERS
COULD REOCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR MAY JUST BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. NW WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT AND THEN MORE WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15-20 KT TONIGHT, DECREASE LATE
TO NEAR 10-15 KT WHICH CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KT
TONIGHT, DIMINISH INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING LATE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, NEAR 20-25 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD 1-2 HOURS
OFF FROM TAF.
WIND GUSTS TIMING MAY VARY A FEW HOURS FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. W WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT IN MORNING, MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST, SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. SOME NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
MARINE
A GALE WRNG REMAINS ON THE OCEAN FOR TNGT. ELSEWHERE, A SCA
REMAINS IN PLACE. A SCA WILL THEN BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN THRU
TUE NGT, AND MAY BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE WITH WINDS CLOSE TO
CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS ON WED. IN
ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND WAVES, LGT FREEZING SPRAY CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AT TIMES THRU TUE NGT.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, THIS MAY INCLUDE SATURDAY AS WELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JMC/JC/JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/JC
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