592
FXUS61 KOKX 270529
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1229 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY.
2) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
3) POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL COASTAL STORM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA ON TUE. NBM POPS
WERE DRY, BUT WITH THE DENDRITIC ZONE ALMOST DOWN TO THE SFC,
AND HIGH RH IN THE TIME HEIGHTS AROUND 1500FT WITH A SWLY FLOW
ALOFT, WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHWRS IN THE
AFTN. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FCST, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAMPING UP TO SHSN SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN A BIT MORE INTENSITY
INCREASE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE SHAPING UP TO BE COLDEST FROM THE
MID-WEEK TO WEEKEND PERIOD. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
FOR TUE NGT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE. IN
ADDITION, ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL IF TRENDS HOLD.
WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AT LEAST NEAR
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BOTH NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY
BREAKING OFF THE POLAR VORTEX AND SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
WOULD THEN HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST DURING SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN THE STORM AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST, PERHAPS APPROACHING THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
DID NOT DEVIATE FROM NBM POPS (20-30%) FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE AND CERTAINLY WITH ANY DETAILS OF THE STORM THIS MANY
DAYS AWAY. WITH THAT SAID, NBM SHOWS A 20-30% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 6
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE EVENT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
AT LEAST MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE START OF THE EVENT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN,
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY END UP BEING
QUITE WEAK AND THEREBY MAY JUST BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. NW WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT AND THEN MORE WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15-20 KT TONIGHT, DECREASES
LATE TO NEAR 10-15 KT WHICH CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. GUSTS NEAR 25-30
KT TONIGHT, DIMINISH INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOME SITES BEFORE
REDEVELOPING LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, NEAR 20-25 KT. OCCASIONAL
PEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KT POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
WIND GUSTS TIMING MAY VARY A FEW HOURS FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. W WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT IN MORNING, MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST, SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR INITIALLY, THEN MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW, MAINLY LATE INTO THE NIGHT. SOME NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS 15-20 KT, INCREASING AT NIGHT TO NEAR 25 KT.
MARINE
A GALE WRNG REMAINS ON THE OCEAN FOR TNGT. ELSEWHERE, A SCA
REMAINS IN PLACE. A SCA WILL THEN BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN THRU
TUE NGT, AND MAY BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE WITH WINDS CLOSE TO
CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS ON WED. IN
ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND WAVES, LGT FREEZING SPRAY CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AT TIMES THRU TUE NGT.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, THIS MAY INCLUDE SATURDAY AS WELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JMC/JC/JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/JC
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