517
FXUS61 KOKX 270749
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
249 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, THE NEW YORK CITY METRO, AND NASSAU COUNTY
ON LONG ISLAND FOR WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 8 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR LATER THIS WEEK.
2) AN COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE SE US COAST THIS WEEKEND. IT
REMAINS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT, IF ANY SNOW AND WIND IMPACTS
WILL OCCUR FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH
WIND CHILLS FALLING BELOW ZERO TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. SOME WIND CHILLS WILL GET -5 TO -9 ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK, WITH PERHAPS THE COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR
REINFORCEMENTS FOR LATER THIS WEEK DURING THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEED FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES APPEAR MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, AND FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
REGARDING NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS FROM NWP, AND THE ECMWF AND GFS AI
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY NEAR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA, WITH PERHAPS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GETTING BRUSHED WITH
SOME SNOW AND WIND. HOWEVER, THERE REMAIN ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT REMAIN ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST ENVELOPE THAT IT WOULD BE TOO SOON TO WRITE THIS OFF AND TO
SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT ANY IMPACTS MAY BE. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH A BIT.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN EARLY TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
END UP BEING QUITE WEAK AND THEREBY MAY JUST BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
FLURRIES.
GUSTS DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NW WIND DIRECTION THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE
WESTERLY LATER TODAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15-20 KT DECREASES
TO NEAR 10-15 KT THIS MORNING WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS
DIMINISH FOR SOME SITES BEFORE REDEVELOPING LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON, NEAR 20-25 KT. OCCASIONAL PEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KT
POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
WIND GUSTS TIMING MAY VARY A FEW HOURS FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR. W WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT IN MORNING, MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST, SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
LONG ISLAND SOUND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OUT ON THE OCEAN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH MOST OF THE NON- OCEAN WATERS EXPERIENCING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALSO LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE
THEN LIKELY TO BEGIN TO CLIMB LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE
WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ331-335-338-340-345.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-
332.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ332-350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE
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