553
FXUS61 KOKX 271359
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
859 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED FLURRIES TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR LATER THIS WEEK.
2) AN COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE SE US COAST THIS WEEKEND. IT
REMAINS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT, IF ANY SNOW AND WIND IMPACTS
WILL OCCUR FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH
WIND CHILLS FALLING BELOW ZERO TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. SOME WIND CHILLS WILL GET -5 TO -9 ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK, WITH PERHAPS THE COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR
REINFORCEMENTS FOR LATER THIS WEEK DURING THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEED FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES APPEAR MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, AND FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
REGARDING NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS FROM NWP, AND THE ECMWF AND GFS AI
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY NEAR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA, WITH PERHAPS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GETTING BRUSHED WITH
SOME SNOW AND WIND. HOWEVER, THERE REMAIN ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT REMAIN ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST ENVELOPE THAT IT WOULD BE TOO SOON TO WRITE THIS OFF AND TO
SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT ANY IMPACTS MAY BE. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TO WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH A BIT.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN EARLY TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. -SHSN REMAINS IN A
PROB30 FOR ALL TERMINALS. EVEN IF SNOW DOES OCCUR, TERMINALS
WILL MOST LIKELY STAY VFR, BUT BRIEF MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
WEST WINDS 10-15 KT THIS MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
GUSTS THAT DO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REDEVELOP LATE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, NEAR 25-30 KT. AN ISOLATED 35 KT GUST IS
POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
-SHSN REMAINS IN A PROB30. LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.
WIND GUST START AND END TIMING MAY VARY A FEW HOURS FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR INITIALLY, THEN MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW, MAINLY LATE INTO THE NIGHT. SOME NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS 15-20 KT, INCREASING AT NIGHT TO NEAR 25 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
LONG ISLAND SOUND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OUT ON THE OCEAN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH MOST OF THE NON- OCEAN WATERS EXPERIENCING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALSO LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE
THEN LIKELY TO BEGIN TO CLIMB LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE
WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-
332.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-335-338-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ332-345-
350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JMC/JE
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page