407
FXUS61 KOKX 280525
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES LOOKS
LIKELY FOR LATER THIS WEEK.
2) A STRONG COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SATURDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY FOR
SPECIFIC IMPACTS, AMOUNTS, AND WIND SPEEDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BLW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA TNGT. THE
NUMBERS ARE MRGNL FOR ADVY CRITERIA, WHICH IS WIDESPREAD -5 NYC
METRO TO LI, AND -10 ELSEWHERE. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVY ATTM.
WITH WIND CHILLS PROGGED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER WED NGT,
AN ADVY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TOO CLOSE TO
ISSUE NOW. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY HOWEVER FOR BOTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FCST NUMBERS SOLIDLY WITHIN CRITERIA
ATTM. WIND CHILLS ARE MRGNL AGAIN SAT NGT INTO SUN.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE LATEST MODELING CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE MAIN QUESTION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS HOW CLOSE WILL THE LOW
TRACK FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS, IF ANY, TO OUR LOCAL AREA. THE GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AMONGST
THE DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLES, AND AI MODELS. THOSE THAT TRACK THE
LOW CLOSER TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ARE ABLE TO BRING SNOW TO AT LEAST
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE MEMBERS THAT ARE MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TIED TO THE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH A 500 MB CLOSED LOW DIVING SOUTH LATE IN THE
WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. THE INTERACTION IS COMPLEX AND IS LEADING TO A
WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FROM A TRACK NEAR THE 40/70
BENCHMARK TO WELL OFFSHORE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME MEMBERS THAT DEEPEN
THE LOW RAPIDLY OFF THE NC COAST BEFORE TAKING THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE. DESPITE SOME OF THE OFFSHORE SOLUTIONS, THE LARGE SIZE OF
THE MODELED SYSTEM COULD STILL BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH POTENTIAL STRONG WIND GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND TIMING ARE STILL LOW AT THIS TIME. ONE
ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO KEY IN ON IS
THAT THE LOW COULD QUITE DEEP, WITH SEVERAL MODELS DEEPENING THE LOW
BELOW 970 MB SOMETIME SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EVEN IF THE
LOW WERE TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK DUE TO THE
MODELED SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
RIGHT NOW IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC IMPACTS SUCH AS
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING ON IMPACTS, IF ANY, ACROSS THE AREA. THE TREND
THIS WINTER HAS BEEN FOR SYSTEMS TO TREND NW OR CLOSER TO THE AREA
WITH TIME, BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THE SAME WILL HOLD TRUE FOR
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW
(CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL) FROM THE LATEST NBMV5.0 IS ABOUT 50
PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT, AND
ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH
SHIFTING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VFR. A LOW CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH BRIEF MVFR LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
W WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10KT FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS FOR THE NYC TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND
20KT POSSIBLE BEFORE THE MORNING PUSH. WINDS MOSTLY W TO WNW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME AT AROUND 10KT, BECOMING WNW TO NW TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 09Z. WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL SOUTH/LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR INITIALLY, THEN MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW, MAINLY LATE NIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASING AT NIGHT TO 20-25 KT, THEN 30-35KT
ON SUNDAY. THERE IS LON CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME ON THE MAGNITUDE OF
WINDS AND SNOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THRU TNGT, THEN
CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN WED. ALTHOUGH LGT FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED, MODERATE IS NO LONGER FCST SO THE ADVY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS AND SEAS THEN BUILD AGAIN LATE THU, WITH A SCA
POSSIBLE BY THU NGT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING INTO SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL OF
GALES OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS, ESPECIALLY THE
OCEAN. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE STORM, WHICH IS STILL OF LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME RANGE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ072>075-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...JMC/DS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/DS
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