140
FXUS61 KOKX 280812 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
312 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND AT TIMES FRIGID CONDITIONS CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS WEEK. SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS,
POTENTIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) AN COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE SE US COAST THIS WEEKEND. IT
REMAINS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE REGION HAS THE RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MORE REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK, WITH THE FIRST REINFORCEMENT ARRIVING THIS EVENING. WIND
CHILLS FALL BELOW ZERO TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK, WITH MORE ARCTIC REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVING FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD COLD WEATHER HEADLINES APPEAR MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND, IF ANY IMPACTS WERE TO OCCUR IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING
WOULD BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE DYNAMIC MODELING HAS THE STORM BEING THE
NEAREST OF MISSES, OR A SIDE SWIPE / BRUSH FOR EASTERN SECTIONS EAST
OF THE NYC METRO. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN DOES AMPLIFY, BUT THE MEAN
EASTERN TROUGH ALSO BEGINS TO PROGRESS EAST WHILE AMPLIFYING. AT
THIS POINT IN THE MODELING / FORECAST PROCESS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THE NEAREST OF MISSES, OR PERHAPS THE REGION GETS
BISECTED WITH A SHARP CUT OFF IN MOISTURE / QPF. WITH AN EASTERN
TRACK AND ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE BEFOREHAND PRECIPITATION WOULD IN
THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. MOST OF THE MODELING ON MOST OF THE MORE
RECENT RUNS HAS HAD THE MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASS JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WOULD TYPICALLY MEANS A MISS FOR OUR
REGION WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THE SLIGHTEST MISREPRESENTATION
OF THE UPPER LEVELS BY NWP WOULD HAVE MASSIVE CONSEQUENCES IN
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG WINDS REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY
FURTHER EAST. STAY TUNED BECAUSE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLAY.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH
SHIFTING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VFR. A LOW CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH BRIEF MVFR LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
W WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10KT FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS FOR THE NYC TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND
20KT POSSIBLE BEFORE THE MORNING PUSH. WINDS MOSTLY W TO WNW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME AT AROUND 10KT, BECOMING WNW TO NW TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 09Z. WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL SOUTH/LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR INITIALLY, THEN MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW, MAINLY LATE NIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASING AT NIGHT TO 20-25 KT, THEN 30-35KT
ON SUNDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF WINDS AND SNOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH MIDDAY, FOLLOWED BY SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL WATERS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTS
GETTING CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON A NW TO NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE QUICKLY
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD GALE CONDITIONS, AND POTENTIALLY STORM
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN INTO SUNDAY AND AT LEAST MUCH
OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
MONDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ072>075-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE
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