209
FXUS61 KOKX 120837
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
337 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS THRU LATE WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE TEMPS.
2) SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE/WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
3) THE PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAINS LOW, BUT CONTINUE MONITORING
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS
TIME RANGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF ACROSS
INTERIOR THIS AM. OTHERWISE, REGION WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF
NE TROUGHING THRU THE PERIOD. BREEZY, CAA, CYCLONIC FLOW TODAY
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO SLOWLY MODERATING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS JUST TO THE W AND S OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2
BACKSIDE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ULJ STREAK PIVOTING THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH RESULTANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A POSSIBLE BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL.
WPC WSE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND NWS NBM DETERMINISTIC OF AROUND 1/10" INCH
OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH REASONABLE WORST CASE OF 3/4".
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF INTERIOR. MORE CLARITY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THIS EVENT IS RESOLVED BY HIGH-RES CAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECWMF/GEM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOW REMAINING
UNPHASED, WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT OF A SOUTHERN
LOW AND SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND OFFSHORE. THIS PREVAILING SCENARIO AT THIS POINT WOULD ONLY
BRING A BRIEF AND LIGHT SNOW (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN NYC/NJ
METRO AND LI), FROM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFT BRIEFLY
EXPANDING NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM NWP ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
KEEPING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH ECMWF MEAN
EXHIBITING THE MOST DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE STILL A SMALL PERCENTAGE
OF MEMBERS, MOSTLY ECMWF, THAT ARE INDICATING A FARTHER NORTH AND/OR
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BRINGING LOW CHANCE PROBS FOR A 1-3"
SNOWFALL, ALTHOUGH THESE PROBS HAVE WAVERED UP AND DOWN OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. VERY SLIGHT PROBS (LESS THAN 10%) OF THIS SCENARIO
WITH GEPS AND GEFS.
PERHAPS, NOT SURPRISINGLY, ECMWF AND GFS AI ENSEMBLE ARE
EXHIBITING SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TO THEIR NWP COUNTERPARTS, ALTHOUGH
BOTH HAVE TRENDED STEADILY SOUTH WITH THEIR QPF AXIS OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. THE GFS AI ONLY SKIRTING SLIGHT PROB OF .1"
LIQUID QPF, WHILE ECMWF AI STILL PRESENTS LOW CHANCE PROBS FOR A
1-3" SNOWFALL.
EXPANDING OUT TO NWS NBM SUPERENSEMBLE, PROB OF 1-2" SNOWFALL IS IN
THE 10-20% RANGE, MOSTLY FROM ECWMF CONTRIBUTION. PROBS HAVE WAVERED
IN THAT RANGE FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS, BASICALLY CONFIRMING A SMALL
ENSEMBLE PERCENTAGE INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED/FARTHER NORTH
TRACK.
ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY APPEARS TO LIE IN SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING
ONSHORE ACROSS PAC NW IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HRS, AND ITS
AMPLITUDE/TIMING AND DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW. A DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SOLUTION
FAVORING MORE INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM AND FARTHER
NORTH/AMPLIFIED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO NBM POPS, WITH CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITY
FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. BUT AS NOTED ABOVE, SINCE WE
ARE STILL 84 HOURS AWAY, WITH INHERENT UNCERTAINTY, WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL INITIALIZATION AND TRENDS.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
NW WINDS G20-25KT MAY BECOME INFREQUENT OR SHUT OFF ALTOGETHER
FOR A SHORT TIME, THEN RESUME AFTER 13Z. DIRECTION SHOULD BE
MORE RIGHT ON OR JUST LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC INITIALLY, THEN JUST
RIGHT BY DAYBREAK. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS BEFORE 13Z MAY BE OCCASIONAL RATHER THAN FREQUENT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G15-20KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. WNW WINDS 10-15G15-20KT.
SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: STILL A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW INLAND, AND
EITHER SNOW/RAIN AT THE NYC METROS/COAST, WITH MVFR OR LOWER
COND POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, SUBSIDING ON
NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING, AND LATE THIS EVENING ON
OCEAN WATERS.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT STILL INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...NV
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