643
FXUS61 KOKX 121832
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
132 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CALMER WINDS THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
2) THE PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAINS LOW, BUT CONTINUE MONITORING
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS
TIME RANGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE GUSTY NW FLOW IN PLACE DIMINISHES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE HIGH BUILDING CLOSER AND
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST EXITING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY REMAIN DRY BUT
SEASONABLY COOL, WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE MID 30S FOR
MOST, OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR MID FEBRUARY. THE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO HELP IT FEEL NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY, DESPITE SIMILAR AIR TEMPERATURES.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST, AND MAY INSTIGATE A FEW SHOWERS INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW ANYWHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HI RES CAMS
COMING INTO RANGE DO DEPICT FAIRLY TRANSIENT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WORKING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LOHUD
VALLEY AND DOWN TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY. OPTED
TO BUMP UP POPS OVER THE NATIONAL BLEND TOWARD LOW END CHANCE
(25%) GIVEN THIS. QPF IS LIGHT, LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT
MOST, AND MANY AREAS MAY SIMPLY REMAIN DRY. WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
DO FALL, A QUICK COATING TO HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE, WITH BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING THIS ACROSS ELEVATED LOCALES OF THE INTERIOR,
BUT CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT FOR COASTAL AREAS.
REGARDLESS, ANY PRECIP COMES TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE,
AND CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
REMAINING UNPHASED, WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT OF A
SOUTHERN LOW AND SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY FOR A FEW RUNS AT THIS POINT. THIS PREVAILING SCENARIO
AT THIS POINT WOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF AND LIGHT SNOW (POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH RAIN NYC/NJ METRO AND LI), FROM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
LIFT BRIEFLY EXPANDING NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM NWP ENSEMBLE MEANS, ECMWF AI, AND GFS AI ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION, WITH ECMWF MEAN EXHIBITING THE MOST DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE
STILL A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF MEMBERS, MOSTLY ECMWF, THAT ARE
INDICATING A FARTHER NORTH AND/OR MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION BRINGING
LOW CHANCE PROBS FOR A 1-3" SNOWFALL, ALTHOUGH THESE PROBS HAVE
WAVERED UP AND DOWN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. VERY SLIGHT PROBS (LESS
THAN 10%) OF THIS SCENARIO WITH GEPS AND GEFS. INTERESTINGLY, THE
GEFS PLUMES SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW FOR KLGA WITH THE 06Z
RUN, WITH A MEAN OF AROUND 2", WITH 10% OF THE MEMBERS SHOWING
WARNING LEVEL SNOW AND ABOUT 15% SHOWING ADVISORY LEVEL OR HIGHER.
WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, THE 50TH PERCENTILE AND LOWER SHOW NO SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE 90TH SHOWS WARNING LEVEL FOR
LONG ISLAND, NYC, NORTHEAST NJ, AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
NW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN NEAR 10 KT FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIRECTION
STAYING MAINLY NW. GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MORE IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE THIS EVENING. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT FORECAST
OVERNIGHT WITH OTHERWISE GUSTS DIMINISHING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY WILL PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN TAF.
END TIME OF GUSTS COULD BE 1-3 HRS OFF FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE EARLY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING
THE DAY.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW. CHANCES OF SNOW LOWER MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS THRU THE REST OF
THE DAY. NW WINDS GUST TO 25 KT INTO EARLY EVENING, THEN
LIGHTENING INTO TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS FALL UNDER 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT. THEREAFTER, WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...JP/DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/DR
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