672
FXUS61 KOKX 131157
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
657 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
2) SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT WITH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
3) THE PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAINS LOW.
4) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. LOW PREDICTABILITY ON P-TYPE DETAILS
AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
REGION REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NE TROUGHING TODAY, ALTHOUGH WITH
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW RELENTING. NOTICEABLY WEAKER NW WIND GUSTS
TODAY (15-20MPH) AS CAA WANES, BUT TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER MODERATING HEART OF CANADIAN AIRMASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
BACKSIDE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND LEFT FRONT OF ULJ STREAK
PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WITH RESULTANT WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
ENDING BY DAYBREAK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTANT BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 00Z MESOSCALE CAMS, SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR
OF SO OF MODERATE SNOW. 00Z SPC HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN OF ONE HOUR
OF 1/4 TO 1/2" RATES. WPC WSE MEAN OF 1/4 TO 1/2" STORM TOTAL
SNOW, WITH REASONABLE WORST CASE 3/4 TO 1".
BASED ON ABOVE, A SWATH OF DUSTING TO 1/2", WITH LOCALLY 1" OF
SNOW LIKELY WHERE MODERATE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW
TRAVERSES. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WET-BULB FROM UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S THIS EVENING INTO LOWER- MID 20S INTERIOR - MID TO UPPER
20S COAST, ALLOWING ACCUMULATION ON MOST SURFACES WHERE MODERATE
BANDING OCCURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOCUSED ON LOHUD, NE NJ, NYC AND W LI WITH
PATH OF HEAVIEST ACTIVITY, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO VORT MAX. THERE IS
OF COURSE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT LOCATION. THIS THREAT MAY
SHIFT 10-20 MILES EAST OR WEST, SO PLAN FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW SHOULD
PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW REMAINING UNPHASED, WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT
OF A SOUTHERN LOW AND SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN OFFSHORE. THIS PREVAILING SCENARIO AT
THIS POINT WOULD ONLY POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
(POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN NYC/NJ METRO AND LI) OR SNOW
SHOWERS/SNOW FLURRIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE
FORCED BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFT BRIEFLY EXPANDING
NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM NWP ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH KEEPING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL,
WITH ECMWF NOW IN LINE WITH GEFS AND GEPS IN MAINLY CLUSTERING
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ECMWF HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM A 30-50% ENSEMBLE
RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF 1-3" 24HRS AGO, DOWN TO LESS THAN 20%.
VERY SLIGHT PROBS (LESS THAN 10%) OF THIS SCENARIO WITH GEPS AND
GEFS.
GFS AND ECMWF AI ENSEMBLES ARE EXHIBITING SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TO THEIR
NWP COUNTERPARTS, WITH BOTH TRENDING SOUTH WITH THEIR QPF AXIS OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE 00Z GFS AI IS NOW SOUTH OF REGION WITH
IT PROBS FOR .1" LIQUID QPF, WHILE 00Z ECMWF AI CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWNWARD WITH PROB FOR A 1-3" SNOWFALL (NOW ONLY 10-20%,
HALF THE PROB OF 24 HRS AGO).
LATEST NWS NBM SUPERENSEMBLE, PROB OF 1" SNOWFALL REMAINS IN
THE 10-20% RANGE. 00Z WPC WSE MEAN OF AROUND 1/2", WITH
REASONABLE WORST CASE OF 3-5". THIS IS HALF OF YESTERDAY, AND
SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY STILL APPEARS TO PREDOMINANTLY TO LIE IN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW THIS EVENING,
AND ITS AMPLITUDE/TIMING AND DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW SUN NIGHT/MON. A DEEPER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SOLUTION FAVORING MORE INTERACTION WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM AND FARTHER NORTH/AMPLIFIED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE, WHICH IS SEEMINGLY ACCOUNTING FOR THE REASONABLE WORST
CASE SCENARIOS.
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO NBM POPS, WITH CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITY FOR A
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. WITH KEY SHORTWAVE FEATURES COMING
ONSHORE THIS EVENING, SHOULD SEE MORE REFINEMENT IN THIS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
NW AROUND 10KT THIS MORNING BECOME MORE W IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING, THE WINDS BACK TO THE W-WSW. INCREASING CONFIDENCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
WILL COVER THIS THREAT WITH A TEMPO GROUP.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER AND
SNOW, MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...NV
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