501
FXUS61 KOKX 131911 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
211 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NE NJ, AND NYC.
2)THE PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY REMAINS LOW. BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST.
3) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/MIXED P-
TYPE CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. LOW PREDICTABILITY ON P-TYPE DETAILS
REMAIN AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
SEND A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW HAVE
OVERACHIEVED SOME THIS WINTER AND NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE
NBM, THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE OF A WEAK WARM ADVECTION EVENT.
CAMS AND GLOBALS SUPPORT LOW A CHANCE EVENT (20-30 PERCENT),
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SE ACROSS THE NYC METRO.
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NBM, GFS, AND HREF FOR POPS, WHICH
RESULTED IN LOWERING CHANCES FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST, BUT STILL
NOT AS LOW AS THE NBM 3-HR POPS. IN ADDITION, ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
HAVE REMOVED ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW
PROBABILITIES AND CONFIDENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CAME A BIT NORTH WITH THE LOW
TRACK, BUT ENSEMBLES STILL SUPPORT A LOW TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. BEST CHANCE AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND. RIGHT NOW, HAVE NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, A REASONABLE WORST
CASE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO AT THE COAST AND LESS
THAN AN INCH INLAND. MODELS NEVER PHASE THE TWO STREAMS FOR A
MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. ON OCCASION, THERE HAS BEEN SOME SUBTLE
NORTH/SOUTH ADJUSTMENTS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS INLAND TO
THE 20S AT THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH BY NWP AND AI CONSENSUS FORECAST
GUIDANCE TOWARDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME MORE OR LESS STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY.
CARRYING CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME VIA
THE NBM. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER INTO FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY HIGH END CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A SECOND
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH WHILE A PUSH OF COLDER AIR FROM
THE NORTH ATTEMPTS TO WORK IN. THIS MAY BRING HIGHER COVERAGE OF
FROZEN P-TYPES WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WITH UNKNOWN
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE BE IN CONTROL.
VFR FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE TAF PERIOD. PROB30 FOR -SHSN
BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 06-12Z PERIOD.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON, BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE
WSW FOR THE SATURDAY MORNING PUSH, THEN W TO WNW AROUND 10 BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH/LEFT 310 MAGNETIC AFTER ABOUT 19-20Z
EXCEPT AT KEWR WHERE IT SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH/LEFT OF 310 FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO, AND
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF NO SNOW/SUB-VFR AT ALL.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER AND
SNOW, MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH NE GUSTS
AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR IN THE MORNING, THEN SUB-VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN FOR ISP AND NYC TERMINALS WITH A
CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WEST WINDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY COULD GUSTS UP TO
20 KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF MORICHES INLET DUE TO THE
WESTERLY FETCH, GETTING UP TO 4 FT. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SEAS. A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO PASS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A PERIOD OF 4 FT OCEAN SEAS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST. OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JE/DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/DW
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