231
FXUS61 KOKX 140730
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
230 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT NORTHWARD TRACK WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE OVERNIGHT.
BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NE NJ, AND NYC.
2)THE PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEST CHANCE
ALONG THE COAST.
3) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/MIXED P-
TYPE CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. LOW PREDICTABILITY ON P-TYPE DETAILS
REMAIN AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
SEND A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CAMS
AND GLOBALS SUPPORT LOW A CHANCE EVENT (20-30 PERCENT), MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SE ACROSS THE NYC METRO. IN
ADDITION, ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO
PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2
OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO COME IN A BIT FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK. ENSEMBLES STILL SUPPORT A LOW TRACK
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH AND A COUPLE OF MB
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS GENERALLY
THE SAME TRACK, BUT ALSO A COUPLE OF MB DEEPER. THE RESPECTIVE
AI MODELS ARE ALSO A BIT FARTHER NORTH, NOW INTRODUCING SOME QPF
INTO THE FORECAST AREA, WHEREAS PREVIOUS RUNS DID NOT. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW OFF SHORE TO STRENGTHEN,
BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED. HOWEVER, IF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS VERIFIES, WE COULD SEE HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW ACROSS NYC, LONG ISLAND, AND NE NJ. DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON
BOARD WITH SOMETHING AS DRASTIC AS THE GFS JUST YET, BUT IF THE
NORTHWARD TREND CONTINUES, HIGHER SNOWFALL WOULD BE EXPECTED.
RIGHT NOW, A 1-2" (CLOSER TO 1", THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 2" OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE) IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
LONG ISLAND, WITH ALL OTHER AREAS UNDER AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS INLAND TO
THE 20S AT THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH BY NWP AND AI CONSENSUS FORECAST
GUIDANCE TOWARDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME VIA
THE NBM. THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
TO WARRANT CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT VIA THE NBM. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FURTHER INTO FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE REMAINING NEAR THE AREA, THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY
BRING HIGHER COVERAGE OF FROZEN P-TYPES WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR. PROB30 REMAINS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
FROM 06-12Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL JUST
REMAIN FLURRIES WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
W-WSW WIND 10 KT OR LESS WITH OUTLYING TERMINALS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z. WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND SHIFT
TO THE W-WNW IN THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING 10-15 KT. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE 17Z-21Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PROB30 -SHSN MAY JUST BE FLURRIES WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE 17-21Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER AND
SNOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY INLAND AND LATE DAY AND NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A PERIOD OF 4 TO 6 FT OCEAN
SEAS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST. OTHERWISE, SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...JP
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