581
FXUS61 KOKX 140943
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
443 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW HAS GENERALLY PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A FLURRY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE CT, BUT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE AND
RADAR RETURNS LIGHT, SO VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY.
SLIGHT NORTHWARD TRACK WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE PROBABILITY FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEST CHANCE
ALONG THE COAST.
2) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/MIXED
P- TYPE CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. LOW PREDICTABILITY ON P-TYPE
DETAILS REMAIN AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO COME IN A BIT FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW TRACK. ENSEMBLES STILL SUPPORT A LOW TRACK
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH AND A COUPLE OF MB
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS GENERALLY
THE SAME TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS RUN, BUT ALSO A COUPLE OF MB
DEEPER. THE RESPECTIVE AI MODELS ARE ALSO A BIT FARTHER NORTH,
NOW INTRODUCING SOME QPF INTO THE FORECAST AREA, WHEREAS
PREVIOUS RUNS DID NOT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW
OFF SHORE TO STRENGTHEN, BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
INCREASED. HOWEVER, IF THE OPERATIONAL GFS VERIFIES, WE COULD
SEE HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACROSS NYC, LONG ISLAND, AND NE
NJ. DID NOT WANT TO JUMP ON BOARD WITH SOMETHING AS DRASTIC AS
THE GFS JUST YET, BUT IF THE NORTHWARD TREND CONTINUES, HIGHER
SNOWFALL WOULD BE EXPECTED. RIGHT NOW, A 1-2" (CLOSER TO 1",
THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2" OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ARE
POSSIBLE) IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF LONG ISLAND, WITH ALL OTHER
AREAS UNDER AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS INLAND TO
THE 20S AT THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH BY NWP AND AI CONSENSUS
FORECAST GUIDANCE TOWARDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME VIA
THE NBM. THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
TO WARRANT CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT VIA THE NBM. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FURTHER INTO FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE REMAINING NEAR THE AREA, THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY
BRING HIGHER COVERAGE OF FROZEN P-TYPES WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR. LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT
08Z AND MAINTAINED THE PROB30S, REFINING AND SHORTENING THE TIME
FRAME FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL JUST REMAIN FLURRIES WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
W-WSW WIND 10 KT OR LESS WITH OUTLYING TERMINALS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z. WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING AND SHIFT TO
THE W-WNW IN THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING 10-15 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
15-20 KT POSSIBLE 17Z-21Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PROB30 -SHSN 09Z TO 10Z MAY JUST BE FLURRIES WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE 17-21Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER AND
SNOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY INLAND AND LATE DAY AND NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A PERIOD OF 4 TO 6 FT OCEAN
SEAS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST. OTHERWISE, SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...JP
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