096
FXUS61 KOKX 142029
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH SUN NIGHT - MON AM
SYSTEM. A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF LATEST TREND CONTINUES THEN
WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A TREND FURTHER NORTH HAS OCCURRED WITH THE MORE RECENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE, BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
FURTHER NORTH INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION.
2) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/MIXED
PRECIP CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. PREDICTABILITY DETAILS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BEGINNING MAINLY WITH LAST NIGHT'S NWP GUIDANCE A TREND FURTHER
NORTH STARTED TO TAKE PLACE. UNFORTUNATELY THERE REMAINS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN LIQUID AMOUNTS, AND THUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
ALSO MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT OF QPF DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL (UNDER 3 INCHES) FOR THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA, WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ACROSS MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE
EVEN IF THE TREND FURTHER NORTH CONTINUES, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS, AND PERHAPS RAIN MIXING IN WITH SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE MAXIMUM QPF / LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. WITH CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MAINLY A QUARTER INCH OF QPF OR LESS HAVE OPTED
TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES JUST YET. THIS
IS BECAUSE THE TREND FURTHER NORTH COULD CEASE, OR EVEN IF IT DOES
CONTINUE AN INTRODUCTION OF A WINTRY MIX / RAIN COULD GET INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREFORE AT THIS POINT IN TIME LOOK FOR SOME
SLICK ROADWAYS LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
MORNING TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED WITH SOME SNOW OR SLUSHY COVERED
ROADS. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED, AND
THUS THE SNOW THAT FALLS MAY NOT STICK INITIALLY, ESPECIALLY ON THE
MAIN ROADWAYS. THERE IS STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE MAX
INTENSITY OF ANY SNOWFALL, ALONG WITH ANY MODERATE SNOW DURATION AND
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. IN ANY EVENT, ANY ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE MORE PREVALENT ON NON-CEMENT / NON-PAVED SURFACES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH ON WED, THEN REMAIN NEARBY INTO
LATE WEEK. CONTINUE TO CARRY 50-60 POP WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT PER NBM.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER BEYOND THAT, SO CHANCE POP
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE HIGHER COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIP
INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM TOWARD
THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY.
VFR.
FLOW CONTINUES TO VEERS WNW-NW INTO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE GENERAL FLOW
VEERS N OVERNIGHT, THEN E ON SUNDAY, SPEEDS REMAIN AT OR UNDER
10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THRU LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SNOW LIKELY FOR AT LEAST NYC METRO/LI TERMINALS. LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY INLAND, WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT OCEAN SEAS
THROUGH THE SUNDAY EVENING. AN OFFSHORE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATER IN THE
DAY MONDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 6 FT SEAS LIKELY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH, IF
NOT ALL OF THE OCEAN WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JE/GOODMAN
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE/GOODMAN
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