045
FXUS61 KOKX 150527
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1227 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STORM
MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NY/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND. WINTER HEADLINES COULD BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE NYC/NJ METRO.
2) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/MIXED
PRECIP CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. PREDICTABILITY DETAILS
REMAIN LOW AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BEGINNING MAINLY WITH LAST NIGHT'S NWP GUIDANCE A TREND FURTHER
NORTH STARTED TO TAKE PLACE. UNFORTUNATELY THERE REMAINS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN LIQUID AMOUNTS, AND THUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
ALSO MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT OF QPF DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL (UNDER 3 INCHES) FOR THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA, WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ACROSS MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE
EVEN IF THE TREND FURTHER NORTH CONTINUES, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS, AND PERHAPS RAIN MIXING IN WITH SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE MAXIMUM QPF / LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. WITH CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MAINLY A QUARTER INCH OF QPF OR LESS HAVE OPTED
TO NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES JUST YET. THIS
IS BECAUSE THE TREND FURTHER NORTH COULD CEASE, OR EVEN IF IT DOES
CONTINUE AN INTRODUCTION OF A WINTRY MIX / RAIN COULD GET INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREFORE AT THIS POINT IN TIME LOOK FOR SOME
SLICK ROADWAYS LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
MORNING TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED WITH SOME SNOW OR SLUSHY COVERED
ROADS. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED, AND
THUS THE SNOW THAT FALLS MAY NOT STICK INITIALLY, ESPECIALLY ON THE
MAIN ROADWAYS. THERE IS STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE MAX
INTENSITY OF ANY SNOWFALL, ALONG WITH ANY MODERATE SNOW DURATION AND
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. IN ANY EVENT, ANY ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE MORE PREVALENT ON NON-CEMENT / NON-PAVED SURFACES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH ON WED, THEN REMAIN NEARBY INTO
LATE WEEK. CONTINUE TO CARRY 50-60 POP WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT PER NBM.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER BEYOND THAT, SO CHANCE POP
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE HIGHER COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIP
INLAND AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM TOWARD
THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
VFR FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF MVFR FOR AT A FEW OF THE OUTLYING TERMINALS, WITH KISP AND
KBDR ALREADY 6SM. THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE CT AND LOWER HUDSON
TERMINALS MAY ONLY TO GET MVFR. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STORM SYSTEM, SO ANY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE TRACK NORTH AND SOUTH WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE. THIS LOOKS
TO BE A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL AT THE NYC AND LI TERMINALS AND LESS
THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME N/NE AT LESS
THAN 10 KT IN MORNING, VEERING AROUND TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON.
E/NE WINDS STRENGTHEN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT TO
AROUND 10 KT, WITH FEW GUSTS 15-18KT POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS UNLIKELY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY, THEN BECOME LIKELY WITH
THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER INTO MONDAY MORNING,
WITH SNOW LIKELY FOR AT LEAST NYC METRO/LI TERMINALS. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL END BY 12Z MONDAY.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY INLAND, WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT OCEAN SEAS
THROUGH THE SUNDAY EVENING. AN OFFSHORE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATER IN THE
DAY MONDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 6 FT SEAS LIKELY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH, IF
NOT ALL OF THE OCEAN WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JE/GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE/GOODMAN
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