950
FXUS61 KOKX 151154
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
654 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NY/NJ METRO AND LONG ISLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND THE NYC/NJ METRO.
2) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/MIXED
PRECIP CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. PREDICTABILITY DETAILS
REMAIN LOW AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
NWP GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MINOR
SNOWFALL EVENT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY, CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FROM PREVIOUS RUN IS LITTLE
CHANGED AND THE AREA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
SNOW FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS LONG ISLAND, NYC, AND NE NJ, WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE, AND POSSIBLY JUST A TRACE OF SNOW ACROSS SE CT. A
REASONABLE WORST CASE WOULD BE 2-3" LOOKING AT THE GFS 90TH
PERCENTILE. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE LOOKS TOO HIGH, OPTED TO USE GFS
ENSEMBLE AS A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO, WHICH IS JUST
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF 90TH PERCENTILE. ANY SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF DURING THE BEGINNING OF ANY COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING,
BUT WITH MONDAY BEING A HOLIDAY, AND ONLY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION, THERE IS LESS OF AN IMPACT THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE
THE CASE FOR A MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARBY INTO LATE WEEK. POPS HAVE
INCREASED TO 50 TO 80 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR WED
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
PASS OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAY OUT AND
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE VICINITY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
THEREAFTER UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. ANOTHER LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY, SO CHANCES INCREASE TO LIKELY BY THIS
POINT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY RETREATS TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING, AFTER 00Z MONDAY, WITH MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
WILL BE AT THE NYC TERMINALS AND ALONG THE COAST, WITH THE OTHER
TERMINALS REMAINING MVFR, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF IFR. SNOW TAPERS
AND ENDS FROM THE WEST AROUND 09Z AND TO THE EAST AROUND 12Z.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM SYSTEM, SO ANY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK NORTH AND
SOUTH WILL IMPACT CONDITIONS AND TIMING OF SNOW. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES AT THE NYC
AND LI TERMINALS AND LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME N/NE AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
MORNING, VEERING AROUND TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON, AND E/NE
TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT AT THE COAST, POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KT, AND LESS THAN 10 KT ELSEWHERE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: MVFR, OR LOWER, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS,
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH SNOW ENDING EAST AROUND 12Z. LITTLE TO
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY INLAND, WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT
OCEAN SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN OFFSHORE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH
AND EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 5 TO 6 FT SEAS LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP
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