030
FXUS61 KOKX 151844 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT MAY LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE NYC METRO, NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, AND LONG ISLAND.
2) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/MIXED
PRECIP CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY DETAILS ON PRECIP
TYPE REMAIN LOW AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE FORECAST PICTURE CONTINUES TO SHARPEN FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND ATTEMPTS TO
PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. DESPITE ADJUSTMENTS IN GUIDANCE AND VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER
THE PAST DAY OR TWO, IT'S BECOME MORE APPARENT THE INTERACTION IS
LARGELY TOO LITTLE TOO LATE LOCALLY, THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO GRAZE
THE REGION WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PREDOMINANTLY SNOW, THOUGH MARGINALLY SO.
SURFACE AIR TEMPS ARE LIKELY NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENT, AND MAY EVEN REMAIN JUST ABOVE IT AROUND THE NYC METRO.
THE SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING,
AFTER 7PM OR SO, OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE COAST INTO LATE
EVENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A FEW RAINDROPS FALL TO START
AROUND THE NYC METRO AND SOUTH SHORE BEFORE WET BULBING COOLS
THE COLUMN. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE THEN LIKELY FOR COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE NIGHT, WITH LESS COVERAGE GOING NORTH AND EAST
AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR AT H925 ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, LIKELY LIMITING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD. ACROSS SE CT, AND PERHAPS MOST OF S CT, LOCALES
MAY REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY, OR ONLY SEE A FEW FLURRIES.
SHORT RANGE HIRES ENSEMBLES YIELD QPF GENERALLY AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, WITH LESS
THAN A TENTH GOING INTO S CT. GIVEN THE MARGINAL PROFILE, SLRS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR UNDER 10:1. FORECAST TOTALS HAVE NOT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL ANTICIPATING
AROUND AN INCH FOR THE NYC METRO, NE NJ, MUCH OF LONG ISLAND,
AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY, WITH LESSER TO LITTLE
GOING NORTH AND EAST. REASONABLE WORST CASE (90TH PERCENTILE)
REMAINS AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES. CONVERSELY, ITS STILL POSSIBLE THE
SNOW SIMPLY DOESN'T FALL HARD OR STEADY ENOUGH TO YIELD MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
GIVEN THE LOW TOTALS, NO ADVISORY WARRANTED WITH THIS UPDATE.
OVERALL NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTFUL EVENT, BUT THE LIGHT SNOW
MAY LEAD TO SOME ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE USED DURING THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TUE NIGHT INTO WED, THEN A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH WED NIGHT INTO THU. POP REMAINS LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL FOR WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND PASS OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE
AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THAT ARRIVES EARLIER DURING WED MORNING. QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH, HIGHEST INLAND.
POP FOR THU/THU NIGHT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE FRONT SHOULD PASS S
AND HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY NOSE IN FROM ERN CANADA, THEN
INCREASES TO LIKELY ON FRI AS THE FRONT RETURNS N AS A WARM FRONT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS AND AS PARENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE N PLAINS
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND AS ANOTHER LOW FORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE
OVER 1/2 INCH AREA-WIDE.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S, WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND 20S TO LOWER 30S
INLAND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING EAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT, THEN EAST INTO MONDAY.
VFR UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING.
LOWER CONDITIONS WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT THE NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS, WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF IFR. SNOW
TAPERS AND ENDS FROM THE WEST AROUND 09-10Z AND FURTHER EAST AROUND
12Z. A FEW TERMINALS LIKE KGON ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM
SYSTEM, WITH ANY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK NORTH AND SOUTH
IMPACTING CONDITIONS AND THE TIMING OF SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AROUND 1 INCH AT THE NYC AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL LI
TERMINALS. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY FOR FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TERMINALS.
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON, AND E/NE TONIGHT. WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT AT THE COAST, POSSIBLE WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-
18KT, AND LESS THAN 10 KT ELSEWHERE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND AND JUST AFTER
01Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON: LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS, OTHERWISE POCKETS OF VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN MAINLY RAIN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY: MVFR AND LOWER POSSIBLE IN MAINLY RAIN, MIX POSSIBLE NORTH.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
COULD LEAD TO OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS UNTIL MONDAY EVENING,
AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD TOWARD 5 TO 6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY
PERSIST ON THESE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING, IF
NOT INTO MIDWEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR
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