518
FXUS61 KOKX 160730
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
230 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/MIXED
PRECIP CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY DETAILS ON
PRECIP TYPE REMAIN LOW AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TUE NIGHT INTO WED, THEN A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH WED NIGHT INTO THU. POPS REMAINS LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL FOR WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET WELL
NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THAT ARRIVES EARLIER
DURING WED MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RANGE FROM
1/10 TO 1/3 INCH, HIGHEST INLAND.
POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE FRONT SHOULD
PASS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY NOSE IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY FRI AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AND THE HIGH RETREATS. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE TREKS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ANOTHER LOW FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S, WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND 20S TO LOWER 30S
INLAND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL RETREAT SOME AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS AND KISP.
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NYC
AND KISP TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR AT THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT TERMINALS. KGON MAY REMAIN VFR FOR
THE ENTIRETY OF THE EVENT DUE TO DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW SNOW TAPERS
AND ENDS FROM THE WEST 09-11Z.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AROUND 1 INCH AT THE NYC AND
KISP TERMINALS. LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY FOR FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TERMINALS.
E/NE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COAST, AND LESS THAN 10 KT ELSEWHERE. N/NE WINDS MONDAY,
GENERALLY SETTLING IN AROUND 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MONDAY
EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CATEGORY CHANGES OF 1-2 HOURS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SNOW AND FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN MAINLY RAIN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY: MVFR AND LOWER POSSIBLE IN MAINLY RAIN, MIX POSSIBLE NORTH.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OUTER WATERS. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY AS SEAS
BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT. EXTENSION OF THE SCA IS LIKELY AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP
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