848
FXUS61 KOKX 160848
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/MIXED
PRECIP CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. PREDICTABILITY DETAILS ON
PRECIP TYPE REMAIN LOW AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TUE NIGHT INTO WED, THEN A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH WED NIGHT INTO THU. POPS REMAINS LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL FOR WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PASS OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET WELL
NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THAT ARRIVES EARLIER
DURING WED MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RANGE FROM
1/10 TO 1/3 INCH, HIGHEST INLAND.
POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE FRONT SHOULD
PASS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY NOSE IN FROM EASTERN
CANADA. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY FRI AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AND THE HIGH RETREATS. AT THE SAME TIME LOW
PRESSURE TREKS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ANOTHER LOW FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S, WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND 20S TO LOWER 30S
INLAND.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST, CENTERED EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA AND PASSES
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREAS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO FALL AS THE TERMINALS WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCALLY IFR WITH VISIBILITIES 1 TO 2 MILES IN SNOW. THE SNOW
WILL BE ENDING 10Z TO 12Z AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AROUND 1 INCH AT THE NYC AND
KISP, KISP MAY REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES, TERMINALS. LESS THAN AN
INCH ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY FOR FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TERMINALS.
NE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT AT THE COAST,
AND LESS THAN 10 KT ELSEWHERE. N/NE WINDS MONDAY, GENERALLY
SETTLING IN AROUND 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS
15-18KT POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MONDAY EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CATEGORY CHANGES MAY BE OFF 1-2 HOURS WITH THE TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE TONIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN INTO THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR.
FRIDAY: MVFR AND LOWER LIKELY IN RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE NORTH.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OUTER WATERS. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY AS SEAS
BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT. EXTENSION OF THE SCA IS LIKELY AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...MET/DW
MARINE...JP
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